Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:46:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b81…b68b sports 754 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (228 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,025 (-58%) realized −$3,885 · open −$140
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate55%398W / 322L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day228.3pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$298now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$88
crypto 44% −$66
other 3% −$58
weather 1% −$4
finance 1% +$5
world 0% +$4
tech 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (228 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 454 -11.3% -19.7% 46% 39% -13.5%
≤30d 720 -2.0% -11.3% 55% 42% -10.4%
≤90d 720 -2.0% -11.3% 55% 42% -10.4%
all 720 -2.0% -11.3% 55% 42% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover228.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 42% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 32% -18.9%
15% -27.6% 23% -26.8%
20% -34.7% 18% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$298
Realized−$3,885
Unrealized−$140
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses398 / 322
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions34
Markets (closed)720 / 754
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day228.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 720 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 Under 64¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners Under 58¢ 60¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+3%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals San Diego Padres 57¢ 94¢ $17 $27 +$11 (+66%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 60¢ 72¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+20%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 54¢ 46¢ $21 $18 −$3 (-15%)
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) San Diego Padres 95¢ 98¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+3%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners Over 59¢ 57¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 25¢ 69¢ $5 $14 +$9 (+178%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Tampa Bay Rays 72¢ 86¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+19%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 25¢ 28¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+14%)
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners Over 75¢ 40¢ $17 $9 −$8 (-47%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 7.5 Corners Under 64¢ 71¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+11%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Under 76¢ 20¢ $30 $8 −$22 (-73%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 6.5 Corners Under 64¢ 64¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 2.5 Corners Over 64¢ 63¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 Over 41¢ 73¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+78%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 24¢ 6¢ $33 $7 −$25 (-78%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half No 78¢ 70¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-10%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 48¢ 54¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners Over 55¢ 56¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Under 73¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+32%)
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) San Diego Padres 40¢ 38¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 3.5 Corners Under 65¢ 68¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) St. Louis Cardinals 48¢ 16¢ $11 $4 −$7 (-66%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 78¢ 62¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $4 +$3 +72%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $34 +$19 +56%
Set Handicap: Napolitano (-1.5) vs Rincon (+1.5) Jun 17 $4 $0 -3%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $4 +$5 +122%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $4 +$3 +78%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $18 −$7 -39%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) Jun 17 $5 +$10 +178%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$2 +35%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $36 −$2 -6%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 17 $7 +$4 +62%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $23 −$3 -14%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $18 +$11 +62%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 +$24 +519%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 17 $22 +$4 +16%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $22 +$15 +69%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 +$3 +54%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $7 −$4 -61%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $12 +$11 +96%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $44 +$16 +38%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $30 +$36 +118%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $54 −$51 -95%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $78 −$38 -49%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $11 +$4 +36%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $17 +$12 +70%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $11 +$6 +54%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $14 −$12 -81%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $35 +$9 +25%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $39 +$26 +66%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 17 $13 $0 -3%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $11 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $30 +$28 +93%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$5 -80%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $8 −$8 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 17 $8 −$8 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $4 +$2 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 55¢ $5 5m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 58¢ $28 10m
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 25¢ $0 10m
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 25¢ $8 10m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $8 11m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $53 12m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 24¢ $28 14m
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 48¢ $11 14m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 78¢ $8 17m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $10 31m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $5 31m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $5 33m
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 25¢ $5 33m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 33¢ $2 33m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $5 33m
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 72¢ $8 35m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 58¢ $3 41m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 58¢ $2 41m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 75¢ $0 42m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 75¢ $7 42m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 75¢ $10 42m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $21 42m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 47¢ $9 45m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 47m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 SELL Under 100¢ $8 47m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Kansas City Royals 100¢ $19 48m
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) SELL Miami Marlins 100¢ $15 48m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 28¢ $1 53m
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 BUY Under 64¢ $30 53m
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 78¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $298.43 · official $297.51 (match) · 3500 history records