Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:07:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b84…f487 crypto 185 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (759 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$74,191 (+125%) realized +$74,191 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate52%152W / 143L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$320per market
Trades / day758.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3,745
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (759 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 295 -25.9% -33.0% 52% 37% -42.0%
≤30d 295 -25.9% -33.0% 52% 37% -42.0%
≤90d 295 -25.9% -33.0% 52% 37% -42.0%
all 295 -25.9% -33.0% 52% 37% -42.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover758.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.0% 37% -42.0%
10% ← realistic here -39.4% 18% -47.6%
15% -45.2% 12% -52.7%
20% -50.6% 7% -57.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +20% → late -71% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
18.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$341 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$74,191
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses152 / 143
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)295 / 185
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$320
Trades / day758.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 295 Trades
no open positions (121 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $569 −$569 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $336 −$336 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $1,198 −$1,198 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $2,774 −$2,774 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $1,796 −$1,796 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $3,905 −$3,905 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $361 −$361 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $148 −$148 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $378 −$378 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $178 −$178 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $975 −$975 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $297 −$297 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $287 −$287 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $450 −$450 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $259 −$259 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $1,233 −$1,233 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $290 −$290 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $282 −$282 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $255 −$255 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $357 −$357 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $174 −$174 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $95 −$95 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $120 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $8 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $48 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $6 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $58 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $116 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $28 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.93 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records