Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:15:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3B 0x3b84…a1ba sports 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 259d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$455 (+1%) realized +$455 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate77%92W / 27L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$443per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$2,022now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$10
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% $0
sports 41% +$352
politics 4% +$68
world 1% +$10
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% +$22
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +21.3% +9.7% 100% 100% +9.7%
≤30d 5 -12.1% -20.4% 60% 40% -13.9%
≤90d 28 +5.2% -4.8% 75% 39% -9.4%
all 119 +7.8% -2.5% 77% 50% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 50% -8.8%
10% -11.8% 36% -17.5%
15% -20.4% 29% -25.5%
20% -28.2% 19% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

259d coverage
Net worth$2,022
Realized+$455
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses92 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions12
Markets (closed)119 / 131
History coverage259d
Avg bet$443
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1,220 $1,226 +$6 (+0%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $398 $397 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: France (-2.5) Norway 84¢ 84¢ $336 $334 −$2 (-1%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 96¢ 90¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 89¢ 22¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 26 $33 +$7 +21%
Spread: Knicks (-13.5) Jun 17 $17 +$3 +18%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $77 −$1 -2%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $29 −$29 -99%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $197 +$3 +2%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $5 $0 +6%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $5 $0 +6%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $5 $0 +4%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $5 $0 +5%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $5 $0 +8%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 22 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Lithuania win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $5,300 −$2 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 14 $20 +$6 +27%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $15 +$1 +6%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 03 $15 +$5 +36%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 03 $414 +$7 +2%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $21,520 −$22 -0%
Hornets vs. Knicks Apr 20 $172 +$28 +16%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $21,341 −$21 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $693 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Clippers Apr 10 $210 +$87 +42%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 08 $641 +$2 +0%
Pelicans vs. Raptors Apr 01 $15 +$5 +33%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Apr 01 $13 +$7 +54%
Pacers vs. Bulls Apr 01 $6 −$6 -99%
Knicks vs. Hornets Mar 27 $5 +$5 +92%
Pelicans vs. Pistons Mar 27 $6 +$4 +54%
Kings vs. Magic: O/U 230.5 Mar 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-9.5) Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Heat (-3.5) Mar 22 $30 +$27 +89%
Magic vs. Hornets Mar 22 $50 +$27 +54%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 19 $588 −$2 -0%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 19 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 19 $4 +$1 +15%
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 19 $5 $0 +5%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 19 $4 +$1 +25%
Will Elle Fanning win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awar Mar 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 19 $5 $0 +5%
Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awar Mar 19 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 19 $30 $0 +1%
Spread: Heat (-3.5) Mar 19 $20 +$20 +96%
Wizards vs. Celtics Mar 19 $380 +$20 +5%
Spread: Raptors (-1.5) Mar 14 $2 +$3 +108%
Rockets vs. Nuggets Mar 14 $27 +$13 +47%
Cavaliers vs. Magic Mar 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Mar 11 $390 −$4 -1%
Pistons vs. Spurs Mar 11 $3 +$2 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 58m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,232 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Norway 84¢ $338 1h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Panama 82¢ $33 8d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $30 15d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 38¢ $76 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 38¢ $77 17d
Spread: Knicks (-13.5) BUY Spurs 84¢ $17 17d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $398 21d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 58¢ $29 27d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $197 34d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $300 43d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $20 50d
Will Lithuania win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 53d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY Celtics 73¢ $15 63d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $414 67d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $4,995 67d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5,000 67d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $21,498 67d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21,520 67d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $21,320 67d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $21,341 67d
Hornets vs. Knicks BUY Hornets 86¢ $172 75d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $693 75d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $693 76d
Thunder vs. Clippers BUY Thunder 70¢ $210 79d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $641 86d
Pacers vs. Bulls BUY Bulls 64¢ $6 86d
Pelicans vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 75¢ $15 91d
Heat vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 65¢ $13 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,021.93 · official $2,021.93 (match) · 315 history records