Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:49:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3B 0x3b86…ed57 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 597d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$356 (-9%) realized −$358 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$559now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$265
14 days+$265
30 days+$265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$24
politics 33% −$429
sports 9% +$231
world 5% −$148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-38.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.9% -13.1% 50% 38% +11.2%
≤30d 8 -3.9% -13.1% 50% 38% +11.2%
≤90d 8 -3.9% -13.1% 50% 38% +11.2%
all 14 -32.0% -38.5% 36% 29% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.5% 29% -19.5%
10% -44.4% 21% -27.2%
15% -49.7% 14% -34.3%
20% -54.7% 7% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -74% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$106 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

597d coverage
Net worth$559
Realized−$358
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage597d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $509 $512 +$3 (+1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $436 +$97 +22%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $103 −$74 -71%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $237 +$308 +130%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $166 −$71 -43%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $158 +$7 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $108 +$51 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $61 −$50 -82%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $25 −$21 -83%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $153 −$128 -84%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Dec 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 19 $749 −$599 -80%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $563 +$169 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $50 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $562 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $532 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $30 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 81¢ $436 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $436 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $103 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $103 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $544 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $545 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $44 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $141 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 49¢ $95 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes $8 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $166 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $165 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $158 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $159 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $9 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $50 4d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? SELL No $4 116d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY No $25 117d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL No $25 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $559.14 · official $559.14 (match) · 47 history records