Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:26:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

3B 0x3b86…f4d4 sports 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL −$8 (-26%) realized −$3 · open −$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +274% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +225% what you keep after slip

Net edge+225%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown41%max

Avg bet$8per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+238.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+274.4%	+238.8%	50%	50%	+134.2%
≤30d	2	+274.4%	+238.8%	50%	50%	+134.2%
≤90d	2	+274.4%	+238.8%	50%	50%	+134.2%
all	2	+274.4%	+238.8%	50%	50%	+134.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+238.8%	50%	+134.2%
10%	+206.4%	50%	+111.8%
15%	+176.8%	50%	+91.4%
20%	+149.6%	50%	+72.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +159% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +274% · $-wt +159% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$33 vs −$10 · ×3.43 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.43 per $1 lost it wins $3.43

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$10

Realized−$3

Unrealized−$5

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$8

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown41%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score	Yes	49¢	50¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	5¢	0¢	$5	$0	−$5 (-99%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$5	+$33	+649%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	49¢	$10	56m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$38	1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	5¢	$5	2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	20¢	$10	22h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.16 · official $10.16 (match) · 5 history records