Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:24:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3B
0x3b87…d3f5
other · 140 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$8 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$76
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses115 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)131 / 140
History coverage457d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%
Chart Positions 9 History 131 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$6
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 94¢ 95¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+6%)
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 77¢ 90¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 94¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? Yes 83¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down on September 1? Up 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? No 97¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Lennar Corp (LEN) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 88¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election? Yes 93¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? No 91¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? No 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025? No 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $7 +$2 +22%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $8 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $8 $0 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $8 +$3 +33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $8 +$1 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $8 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $12 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $12 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $12 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026? May 13 $7 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $7 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $6 +$1 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $7 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $8 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? May 03 $6 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Viktor Orbán by April 30, 2026? May 03 $6 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? May 03 $6 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? May 03 $6 $0 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 03 $13 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $6 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $6 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 23 $6 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 23 $6 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 23 $6 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 23 $7 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 23 $6 +$1 +21%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 23 $8 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April Apr 23 $6 +$3 +45%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Apr 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from March 20 to Mar Apr 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Apr 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Apr 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 20 to Mar Apr 13 $5 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Apr 13 $6 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Apr 13 $6 $0 +2%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? Apr 13 $6 $0 +5%
Will Vance say "Ass" during his Rocky Mount visit? Mar 25 $3 +$1 +20%
Unitas Labs FDV above $20M one day after launch? Mar 25 $5 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 6 to Marc Mar 25 $6 $0 +5%
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 15, 2026? Mar 25 $6 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 25 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Feb 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Feb 01 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Feb 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Feb 01 $3 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January? Feb 01 $3 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January? Feb 01 $4 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 38% −$8
crypto 23% −$6
economics 19% −$4
other 19% −$1
world 0% +$9
politics 0% +$6
finance 0% −$3
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $12 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $11 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY No 75¢ $8 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? BUY No 87¢ $8 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? BUY No 98¢ $8 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $7 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $8 14d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $12 26d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $12 26d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $12 26d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $7 40d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $7 40d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $7 40d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $8 40d
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $7 40d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $8 40d
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? BUY No 86¢ $6 40d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? BUY No 99¢ $13 50d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Viktor Orbán by April 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $6 50d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $6 50d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $6 50d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $6 50d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $6 50d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $6 50d
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April BUY No 68¢ $6 60d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $6 60d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $6 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +22.0% +10.3% 100% 100% +10.3%
≤30d 9 +9.9% -0.5% 100% 33% -1.6%
≤90d 42 +4.6% -5.4% 98% 17% -5.7%
all 131 -0.9% -10.3% 88% 16% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 16% -9.6%
10% -18.9% 6% -18.2%
15% -26.7% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.9% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.39 · official $76.39 (match) · 263 history records