Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:52:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b8b…2ef7 crypto 925 markets active 3h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d only
✗ bot/MM pace (101 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,147 (+2%) realized +$1,151 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate75%688W / 231L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day101.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$210
14 days−$223
30 days+$606
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$586
weather 2% +$13
sports 1% −$61
other 0% +$72
tech 0% +$2
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (101 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -12.9% -21.2% 58% 46% -19.7%
≤30d 919 -0.8% -10.3% 75% 42% -8.6%
≤90d 919 -0.8% -10.3% 75% 42% -8.6%
all 919 -0.8% -10.3% 75% 42% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover101.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 42% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 22% -17.3%
15% -26.7% 14% -25.3%
20% -33.9% 9% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$23 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$1,151
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses688 / 231
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)919 / 925
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$61
Trades / day101.0
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 919 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25? No 91¢ 73¢ $40 $32 −$8 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 25? No 92¢ 100¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 25? Yes 69¢ 72¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? Yes 55¢ 69¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$5 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? Jun 25 $131 −$15 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$9 -84%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$15 +152%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 24 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 −$6 -61%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$14 +134%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 +$3 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $5 +$8 +158%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$12 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 22 $5 +$5 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? Jun 22 $81 +$12 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Jun 22 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $55 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $40 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $41 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $56 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $35 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$9 +28%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25? BUY No 91¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 7h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 25? BUY No 92¢ $20 8h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 11h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 11h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 89¢ $10 18h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 25? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? SELL No 17¢ $6 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 34h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 43¢ $10 46h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 76¢ $10 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? BUY No 86¢ $30 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 38¢ $5 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 49¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.65 · official $80.65 (match) · 3500 history records