Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:50:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3B 0x3b8f…51ec other 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$42 (+0%) realized +$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate17%18W / 90L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$267per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$13
politics 15% −$5
sports 7% +$60
economics 3% $0
world 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
culture 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 10 -0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 103 +9.7% -0.8% 17% 13% -9.4%
all 108 +9.2% -1.2% 17% 12% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 12% -9.4%
10% -10.7% 11% -18.1%
15% -19.3% 9% -26.0%
20% -27.2% 7% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +18% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×8.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$297
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses18 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)108 / 111
History coverage94d
Avg bet$267
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $152 $152 −$0 (-0%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $102 $102 −$0 (-0%)
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $77 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 05 $119 +$1 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $399 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 27 $43 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $473 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $222 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 20 $63 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 16 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $271 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $588 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $289 $0 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 08 $281 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $270 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $284 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $272 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 03 $302 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $274 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 01 $276 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $276 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $294 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $868 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $485 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $304 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $289 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $305 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $299 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $280 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 16 $281 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $297 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $297 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 14 $297 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $307 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 13 $307 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 12 $305 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $297 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $293 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $102 1h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 23h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 28h
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $152 3d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $65 5d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $65 5d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $40 12d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $40 13d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 13d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 14d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 14d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 14d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 22d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 22d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 22d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 23d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $42 23d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $43 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $77 24d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $55 24d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 25d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 28d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 28d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $119 29d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 29d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 29d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 30d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 30d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $55 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296.64 · official $296.64 (match) · 318 history records