Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:44:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3B 0x3b92…f3d7 politics 124 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$58 (+0%) realized +$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%14W / 109L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$339per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$21
politics 37% −$19
sports 8% +$96
crypto 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 109 +6.6% -3.5% 10% 7% -9.3%
all 123 +3.4% -6.4% 11% 8% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 8% -9.4%
10% -15.4% 7% -18.1%
15% -23.6% 5% -26.0%
20% -31.1% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×11.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses14 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage116d
Avg bet$339
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $55 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $439 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $642 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $307 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $34 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $57 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $59 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $643 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $1,049 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $323 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $276 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $271 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $1,116 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $741 −$2 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 17 $356 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $677 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $320 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 14 $262 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $656 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $264 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $822 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $288 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 11 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $378 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $330 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $371 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $302 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $296 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $265 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $271 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $326 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $743 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $290 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $1,199 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $589 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $305 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $283 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $388 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 22 $355 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 6h
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 6h
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 6d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 6d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 6d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 6d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 7d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 9d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 9d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 11d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 12d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 12d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 13d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 13d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 14d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $344 22d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $344 26d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $338 26d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $338 28d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $378 29d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $378 30d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $323 30d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $323 30d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $305 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.98 · official $33.98 (match) · 365 history records