Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:38:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3B 0x3b93…c58d other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$21 (-3%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +236% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +204% what you keep after slip
Net edge+204%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$153
7 days+$132
14 days+$481
30 days+$481
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$258
sports 50% +$224
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+203.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +14.2% +3.3% 50% 50% +76.1%
≤30d 4 +235.8% +203.8% 75% 75% +190.5%
≤90d 4 +235.8% +203.8% 75% 75% +190.5%
all 4 +235.8% +203.8% 75% 75% +190.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +203.8% 75% +190.5%
10% +174.7% 75% +162.7%
15% +148.2% 75% +137.3%
20% +123.9% 75% +114.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +221% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +236% · $-wt +221% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$167 vs −$21 · ×8.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×24.37 per $1 lost it wins $24.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 14
History coverage10d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $119 +$153 +128%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japa Jun 21 $53 +$224 +425%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? AND Jun 19 $26 +$126 +490%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records