Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:40:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b96…2170 other 186 markets active 1h ago coverage 547d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate93%169W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$13
world 17% +$18
tech 13% $0
crypto 8% −$41
politics 6% −$1
sports 3% +$20
weather 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 23 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 100 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 3% -7.5%
all 181 -3.8% -13.0% 93% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 5% -9.8%
10% -21.3% 3% -18.4%
15% -28.9% 2% -26.3%
20% -35.9% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$12 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

547d coverage
Net worth$240
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses169 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)181 / 186
History coverage547d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $119 $119 +$0 (+0%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,850 (HIGH) in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 28 $37 $0 +0%
Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 27 $407 +$5 +1%
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $436 +$5 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control O May 31 $3 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $331 +$1 +0%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On May 31 $4 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control May 31 $65 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Contro May 31 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? May 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 29 $5 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? May 29 $2 $0 +1%
Citrea FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 28 $364 +$1 +0%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 26 $355 +$9 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $354 +$6 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 23 $3 $0 +2%
Will Israel be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $314 +$41 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $312 +$3 +1%
Will Ukraine advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $304 +$9 +3%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $303 +$3 +1%
Will Sweden advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 12 $1 $0 +2%
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 06 $40 +$5 +12%
Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 06 $309 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? May 04 $65 +$8 +13%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in April? May 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April? May 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in April? May 01 $4 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in April? May 01 $4 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? May 01 $6 $0 +4%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? May 01 $11 $0 +1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? May 01 $33 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? May 01 $50 +$3 +5%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 01 $230 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $160 end of April? May 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market May 01 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? BUY No 100¢ $51 1h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June? BUY No 99¢ $68 4h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $119 8h
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 100¢ $37 43h
Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $407 45h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,850 (HIGH) in June? BUY No 99¢ $2 2d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $436 2d
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 29d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $331 29d
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control BUY No 100¢ $65 30d
Citrea FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $364 31d
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 97¢ $355 33d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May BUY No 100¢ $5 34d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? BUY Yes 98¢ $3 38d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $354 39d
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $314 43d
Will Israel be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? BUY No 100¢ $1 43d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 44d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 99¢ $312 44d
Will Ukraine advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 97¢ $304 45d
Will Sweden advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 47d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 48d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $303 48d
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control O BUY No 100¢ $3 48d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $5 49d
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On BUY No 100¢ $4 49d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 49d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 49d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 49d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $240.32 · official $240.32 (match) · 420 history records