Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:39:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

3B 0x3b96…5e8c crypto 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$55 (+0%) realized +$38 · open +$17

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate100%24W / 0L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$604per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Kalshi-fit97%portable

Net worth$2,304now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 81d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-9.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	7	+0.3%	-9.3%	100%	0%	-9.2%
≤90d	24	+0.4%	-9.2%	100%	0%	-9.3%
all	24	+0.4%	-9.2%	100%	0%	-9.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.2%	0%	-9.3%
10%	-17.9%	0%	-18.0%
15%	-25.8%	0%	-25.9%
20%	-33.1%	0%	-33.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,178) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage

Net worth$2,304

Realized+$38

Unrealized+$17

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses24 / 0

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Open positions6

Markets (closed)24 / 30

History coverage81d

Avg bet$604

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 24 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	99¢	100¢	$596	$598	+$2 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?	No	100¢	100¢	$474	$475	+$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June?	No	100¢	100¢	$397	$397	+$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	91¢	93¢	$274	$281	+$7 (+3%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	93¢	96¢	$274	$280	+$7 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?	No	100¢	100¢	$272	$272	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May?	Jun 07	$241	$0	+0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May?	Jun 07	$250	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May?	Jun 07	$284	$0	+0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May?	Jun 07	$361	+$1	+0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	Jun 07	$364	+$3	+1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	Jun 07	$388	+$1	+0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Jun 07	$394	+$2	+0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April?	May 07	$98	$0	+0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	May 07	$163	+$3	+2%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	May 07	$173	+$1	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	May 07	$195	+$1	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?	May 07	$325	+$1	+0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April?	May 07	$340	+$1	+0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April	May 07	$414	+$8	+2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	May 07	$557	+$1	+0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March?	Apr 02	$1,016	+$1	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March?	Apr 02	$1,048	+$1	+0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March	Apr 02	$1,075	+$4	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March?	Apr 02	$1,178	+$1	+0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Apr 02	$1,230	+$1	+0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar	Apr 02	$1,268	+$1	+0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?	Apr 02	$1,274	+$3	+0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March?	Apr 02	$1,343	+$1	+0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Apr 02	$1,550	+$2	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June	BUY Yes	96¢	$98	53m
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	BUY Yes	93¢	$197	53m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?	SELL No	100¢	$295	54m
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	BUY Yes	85¢	$78	9d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June	BUY Yes	92¢	$176	9d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June?	BUY No	100¢	$397	9d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?	BUY No	100¢	$474	9d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?	BUY No	100¢	$567	9d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	BUY No	99¢	$596	9d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$250	41d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$241	41d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$284	41d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$394	41d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$388	41d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$361	41d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	BUY No	99¢	$364	41d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$340	61d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$325	61d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$360	61d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April	BUY Yes	99¢	$232	61d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$98	75d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	BUY No	98¢	$163	75d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April	BUY Yes	97¢	$183	75d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$173	75d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$197	75d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$195	75d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March?	BUY No	100¢	$1,178	81d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March?	BUY No	100¢	$1,016	81d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March?	BUY No	100¢	$1,048	81d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar	BUY No	100¢	$1,268	81d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,303.54 · official $2,303.54 (match) · 59 history records