Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:11:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b96…6226 other 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$246 (-23%) realized −$233 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate18%8W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days−$59
14 days−$59
30 days−$260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$182
other 34% +$2
politics 14% −$92
culture 1% $0
crypto 0% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -4.6% -13.7% 38% 31% -18.3%
≤30d 45 -7.6% -16.4% 18% 13% -32.9%
≤90d 45 -7.6% -16.4% 18% 13% -32.9%
all 45 -7.6% -16.4% 18% 13% -32.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 13% -32.9%
10% -24.4% 4% -39.3%
15% -31.7% 2% -45.2%
20% -38.4% 2% -50.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$233
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses8 / 37
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage21d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $63 $50 −$13 (-20%)
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 26 $2 $0 -17%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 26 $123 +$24 +20%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 26 $36 −$3 -9%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $35 +$5 +14%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 25 $19 $0 -2%
Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? Jun 24 $6 $0 -5%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $148 −$84 -57%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $31 +$1 +4%
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $1 $0 +33%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $43 −$1 -3%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $38 +$5 +14%
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Jun 21 $126 −$4 -4%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $132 −$91 -69%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $3 $0 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $9 −$1 -11%
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? Jun 10 $1 $0 -15%
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $3 $0 -12%
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $3 $0 -15%
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $4 $0 -10%
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $4 $0 -10%
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $6 $0 -8%
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $5 $0 -10%
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $6 $0 -9%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2 $0 -8%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2 $0 -7%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $4 $0 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $4 $0 -6%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $3 $0 -6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2 $0 -5%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2 $0 -4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $3 $0 +13%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $35 +$2 +5%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $11 $0 -3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +63%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 08 $2 $0 -6%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Jun 08 $2 $0 -8%
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 -6%
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 -9%
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Jun 08 $10 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $10 $0 -2%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $106 −$106 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 19m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $24 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $16 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $48 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 8¢ $8 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 55¢ $26 4h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 55¢ $29 5h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 12¢ $8 5h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5h
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 13h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 10¢ $1 15h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 10¢ $8 15h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 13¢ $1 15h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 10¢ $12 15h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 10¢ $2 15h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 10¢ $1 15h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 64¢ $48 16h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 64¢ $3 16h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 16¢ $8 33h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 41¢ $8 33h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 8¢ $16 39h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 35¢ $8 39h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 35¢ $7 39h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $40 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.72 · official $50.72 (match) · 189 history records