Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:18:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b9d…3836 crypto 123 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d only
✗ bot/MM pace (230 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$89 (-0%) realized −$89 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate13%15W / 103L
Whale WR9%big bets
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$318per market
Trades / day229.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$46
14 days−$20
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% $0
economics 27% −$2
other 14% +$13
crypto 8% −$1
politics 5% $0
sports 3% −$8
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (230 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -6.8% -15.7% 10% 6% -9.9%
≤30d 118 -4.0% -13.2% 13% 8% -9.5%
≤90d 118 -4.0% -13.2% 13% 8% -9.5%
all 118 -4.0% -13.2% 13% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover229.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 8% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 8% -18.2%
15% -29.1% 8% -26.1%
20% -36.0% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 9% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×6.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses15 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)9%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)118 / 123
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$318
Trades / day229.9
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $318 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 21 $80 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $19 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $769 $0 -0%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $668 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1,137 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $157 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $237 $0 -0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $134 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 21 $1,160 $0 -0%
Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 21 $2,430 $0 -0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $89 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 20 $766 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $61 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 20 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 19 $223 $0 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $19 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? Jun 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 19 $59 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? Jun 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 20? Jun 19 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 Jun 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 15-21? Jun 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? Jun 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $168 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $775 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $334 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? Jun 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Jun 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? Jun 19 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Jun 19 $21 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $61 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $65 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? Jun 18 $20 $0 -0%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $20 0m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $20 0m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? SELL No 100¢ $19 20m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY No 100¢ $19 20m
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $19 34m
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $19 35m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $21 49m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $21 49m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $20 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $15 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $20 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $20 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? SELL No 100¢ $19 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $37 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $37 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $36 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $36 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $29 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $29 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $9 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $46 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $9 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $46 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $30 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $30 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $55 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $55 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $20 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.14 · official $108.14 (match) · 3500 history records