Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:30:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b9e…f116 sports 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$34 (-7%) realized −$29 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%13W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$1
sports 22% −$12
crypto 6% −$23
world 3% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-36.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -37.7% -43.6% 38% 38% -17.0%
≤30d 16 -37.7% -43.6% 38% 38% -17.0%
≤90d 43 -29.4% -36.1% 30% 30% -15.4%
all 43 -29.4% -36.1% 30% 30% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.1% 30% -15.4%
10% -42.2% 21% -23.5%
15% -47.8% 19% -30.9%
20% -52.9% 7% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses13 / 30
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage76d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $55 +$7 +13%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $86 +$19 +22%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$5 -52%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $26 +$13 +51%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $39 −$39 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$11 +36%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$6 -64%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $29 +$13 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2 $0 -2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Apr 06 $21 +$5 +24%
Will "YOUR RAGE" win the streamer fight? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "SKI MASK" win the streamer fight? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest G Apr 06 $3 −$2 -60%
Will "RUBIUS" win the streamer fight? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: BET-M 33 vs 1WIN (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playoffs Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Wild vs. Red Wings Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox Apr 05 $14 +$7 +47%
Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 05 $8 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 +45%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs MIBR (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group St Apr 05 $3 −$1 -45%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 05 $3 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: BMZ vs FengDa Gaming (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asi Apr 05 $4 +$5 +134%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 05 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 05 $4 $0 -1%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 05 $4 $0 -0%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Apr 05 $4 +$5 +129%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 05 $5 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Apr 04 $3 +$1 +20%
Bulls vs. Knicks Apr 04 $3 $0 +11%
Flyers vs. Islanders Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 04 $4 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 03 $3 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 03 $4 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $37 55m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 82¢ $25 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $25 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $36 4h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 62¢ $47 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $49 4h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $39 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $39 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $16 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 27h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 32h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 41h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 41h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 42h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $29 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $19 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 4d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 82¢ $5 40d
Lakers vs. Mavericks BUY Mavericks 83¢ $14 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.95 · official $0.95 (match) · 105 history records