Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:34:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3B 0x3ba5…4425 other 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 604d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$39 (-0%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate16%9W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$291per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$8
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 79% −$14
politics 12% −$9
other 6% +$6
tech 1% +$6
crypto 1% $0
sports 1% −$30
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -5.7% -14.7% 6% 0% -11.8%
≤90d 45 -3.7% -12.9% 16% 9% -10.8%
all 57 -3.1% -12.3% 16% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 7% -9.7%
10% -20.7% 7% -18.4%
15% -28.4% 7% -26.3%
20% -35.4% 7% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses9 / 48
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)57 / 59
History coverage604d
Avg bet$291
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $9 $0 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $14 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $26 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $12 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $66 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $70 $0 -0%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $70 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 08 $72 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 07 $71 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $68 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $67 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $73 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $70 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $68 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $66 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $71 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 22 $71 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $67 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $72 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $66 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $68 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Apr 17 $71 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $7 +$6 +83%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $10 +$7 +76%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $19 $0 -2%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $6 +$6 +90%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Sabres vs. Senators Apr 06 $5 +$5 +89%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Apr 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 02 $46 $0 +0%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks Mar 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February? Mar 05 $87 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 09 $81 +$6 +8%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 01 $13,522 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $2 $0 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $17 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 23h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 30h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $40 2d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 3d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 4d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $8 5d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $8 5d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 5d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 5d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $9 6d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 7d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 8d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 62¢ $8 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 10d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 12d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 12d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 13d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 13d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 14d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $12 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $12 15d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 15d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 15d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 16d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 16d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.48 · official $49.48 (match) · 261 history records