Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:06:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3B 0x3ba7…dec0 other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 241d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL +$473 (+16%) realized +$474 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate65%32W / 17L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$20
30 days+$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$76
other 32% −$4
tech 14% +$16
finance 10% +$5
politics 7% +$376
economics 1% +$1
sports 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 +32.7% +20.0% 91% 36% +0.9%
≤90d 33 +0.3% -9.2% 70% 27% -3.2%
all 49 +38.9% +25.7% 65% 27% +5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.7% 27% +5.3%
10% +13.6% 16% -4.8%
15% +2.7% 14% -14.0%
20% -7.4% 10% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +71% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$13 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.88 per $1 lost it wins $3.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$474
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses32 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage241d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $48 $45 −$3 (-6%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $28 $30 +$2 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 20 $53 +$8 +15%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $36 +$3 +8%
Will Noni Madueke be in England's Starting 11? Jun 18 $121 −$16 -13%
Will João Félix be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 16 $85 +$4 +5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $182 +$18 +10%
Will Bradley Barcola be in France's Starting 11? Jun 14 $44 +$4 +8%
Will Memphis Depay be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $5 +$4 +75%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $31 +$69 +223%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 05 $415 +$16 +4%
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after Jun 02 $54 +$9 +18%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $189 +$80 +42%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in May? May 20 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 22 $74 +$18 +24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 22 $30 +$3 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 19 $213 +$44 +21%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 18 $45 +$2 +4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $6 −$1 -14%
Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 18, 2026? Apr 17 $34 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Apr 16 $148 +$12 +8%
Will Mathieu van der Poel win the 2026 Paris-Roubaix Hauts-de-France? Apr 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Paris-Roubaix Hauts-de-France? Apr 12 $24 +$24 +96%
Will Chelsea finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? Apr 09 $6 −$3 -45%
US recession by end of 2026? Apr 06 $41 +$1 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 6? Apr 05 $272 +$4 +2%
Will Jonas Abrahamsen win the 2026 Men's Tour de Flanders? Apr 05 $0 $0 +9%
Will Mathieu van der Poel win the 2026 Men's Tour de Flanders? Apr 05 $16 −$14 -86%
Will Wout van Aert finish in the top 3 at the 2026 Men's Tour de Fland Apr 05 $7 $0 +6%
Will Remco Evenepoel finish in the top 3 at the 2026 Men's Tour de Fla Apr 05 $35 −$13 -38%
Will Tadej Pogacar win the 2026 Men's Tour de Flanders? Apr 05 $100 +$3 +3%
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday at least 15%? Apr 04 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t Mar 24 $12 +$181 +1485%
Will Alex Vanopslagh be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2 Mar 24 $29 +$101 +345%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Nov 26 $76 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26? Nov 25 $71 +$4 +6%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25? Nov 23 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31? Nov 21 $24 +$9 +38%
Will Kast win by at least 25%? Nov 19 $35 +$5 +13%
Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30? Nov 17 $65 +$4 +6%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 21? Nov 17 $16 $0 -0%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 19? Nov 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will Palantir reach $210 in November? Nov 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Disney say "Debt" during earnings call? Nov 12 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Metamask daily perps revenue hit $100k in 2025? Nov 12 $30 −$4 -12%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Nov 12 $4 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 14? Nov 10 $56 +$2 +4%
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standing Nov 08 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $49 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $41 7d
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $20 7d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 39¢ $39 7d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 36¢ $36 7d
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $53 7d
Will João Félix be in Portugal's Starting 11? SELL No 89¢ $89 10d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $182 13d
Will Bradley Barcola be in France's Starting 11? SELL No 79¢ $47 13d
Will Memphis Depay be in Netherlands's Starting 11? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 13d
Will Memphis Depay be in Netherlands's Starting 11? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 13d
Will Memphis Depay be in Netherlands's Starting 11? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 13d
Will Memphis Depay be in Netherlands's Starting 11? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 13d
Will Memphis Depay be in Netherlands's Starting 11? BUY Yes 39¢ $0 13d
Will Memphis Depay be in Netherlands's Starting 11? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 13d
Will Noni Madueke be in England's Starting 11? SELL No 76¢ $51 13d
Will Noni Madueke be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 72¢ $49 13d
Will Bradley Barcola be in France's Starting 11? BUY No 73¢ $29 13d
Will Bradley Barcola be in France's Starting 11? BUY No 73¢ $15 13d
Will Noni Madueke be in England's Starting 11? SELL No 72¢ $53 13d
Will Noni Madueke be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 72¢ $54 13d
Will João Félix be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 85¢ $85 13d
Will Noni Madueke be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 72¢ $18 13d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 20d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 20d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 20d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 20d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 21d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 41¢ $270 21d
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after SELL Yes $1 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.50 · official $75.50 (match) · 394 history records