Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:59:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3ba9…d169 crypto 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 381d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$112 (-2%) realized −$112 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate40%19W / 28L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$26
14 days−$106
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$40
world 25% −$2
politics 20% −$2
tech 9% −$1
culture 8% −$1
crypto 3% +$5
sports 3% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.0% -32.2% 25% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 14 -12.5% -20.8% 21% 7% -11.4%
≤90d 19 -12.9% -21.2% 37% 11% -11.6%
all 47 -5.0% -14.1% 40% 4% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 4% -11.0%
10% -22.3% 4% -19.5%
15% -29.8% 0% -27.3%
20% -36.7% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

381d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$112
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses19 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage381d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 30? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 29 $585 −$1 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 29 $582 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 24? Jun 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 24 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 22 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 22 $607 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 22 $615 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 19? Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 18 $565 −$1 -0%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? Jun 18 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 18 $625 −$1 -0%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 17 $78 −$76 -98%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $33 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 28? Jun 03 $17 +$4 +26%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 26 $9 +$2 +29%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 March 30-April 5? May 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? Apr 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 28 $42 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $10 March 2-8? Mar 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 March 2-8? Mar 17 $8 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 03 $44 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.40 January 5-11? Jan 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 January 5-11? Jan 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Durant win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jan 05 $44 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.30 in November? Jan 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 06 $35 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will PENAC win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Asse Nov 27 $40 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $340 in August? Nov 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? Oct 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Sep 18 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Aug 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2200 on June 27? Jul 24 $8 $0 +4%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jul 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series? Jun 25 $38 $0 -0%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Jun 25 $47 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Sebastian Burduja? Jun 19 $324 $0 -0%
Will Francesca Muñoz win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 19 $319 $0 -0%
Will Richard Carapaz win the Tour de France 2025? Jun 13 $342 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 13 $328 $0 -0%
Will Virgil van Dijk win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 13 $324 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $584 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 1h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $160 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $425 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $580 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 1h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 37¢ $25 5d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $604 7d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 7d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $605 7d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $603 7d
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $5 7d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $154 7d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $461 7d
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $8 7d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $615 7d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $564 11d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? SELL No 99¢ $38 11d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $150 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 11d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $415 11d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? SELL No 99¢ $562 11d
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 11d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? BUY No 99¢ $600 11d
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $598 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 11d
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $625 11d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 50¢ $78 12d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.97 · official $15.97 (match) · 122 history records