Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:05:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3B 0x3ba9…59e2 crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$108 (-10%) realized +$2 · open −$110
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%21W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$75
14 days−$75
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$48
other 20% −$82
sports 12% −$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -43.3% -48.7% 14% 14% -39.3%
≤30d 7 -43.3% -48.7% 14% 14% -39.3%
≤90d 7 -43.3% -48.7% 14% 14% -39.3%
all 49 -22.5% -29.9% 43% 41% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.9% 41% -21.1%
10% -36.6% 35% -28.7%
15% -42.7% 27% -35.6%
20% -48.3% 20% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% too few recent
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$14 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$110
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses21 / 28
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage107d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 15¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $61 −$2 -4%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $62 −$2 -2%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$3 -28%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 08 $30 −$29 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 08 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 08 $15 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 04 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 04 $5 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 04 $30 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 04 $15 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 04 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 04 $75 +$9 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 04 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 04 $20 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 04 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 04 $20 +$25 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 04 $15 +$11 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 04 $15 +$14 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 04 $21 +$21 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 04 $16 −$14 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 04 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 04 $25 −$16 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 04 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 04 $16 +$22 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 04 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 04 $20 +$17 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 04 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 04 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 04 $54 +$79 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 04 $20 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 04 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 04 $6 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 12¢ $10 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 16¢ $103 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $59 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 14¢ $60 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 24h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 24h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $27 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $30 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $19 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.36 · official $0.36 (match) · 152 history records