Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:58:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3bac…37e9 sports 64 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$129 (-10%) realized −$217 · open +$88
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%23W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$358now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$271
7 days−$249
14 days−$267
30 days−$239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$211
world 23% +$99
other 12% −$26
politics 10% −$1
economics 4% $0
crypto 2% −$12
weather 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -36.6% -42.7% 30% 27% -46.2%
≤30d 48 -17.0% -24.9% 48% 44% -34.2%
≤90d 48 -17.0% -24.9% 48% 44% -34.2%
all 48 -17.0% -24.9% 48% 44% -34.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 44% -34.2%
10% -32.1% 38% -40.5%
15% -38.6% 17% -46.3%
20% -44.6% 15% -51.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -69% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$14 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$358
Realized−$217
Unrealized+$88
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses23 / 25
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions16
Markets (closed)48 / 64
History coverage20d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 12¢ 28¢ $46 $105 +$59 (+128%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 7¢ 40¢ $11 $60 +$49 (+451%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 17¢ $52 $41 −$10 (-20%)
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 22¢ 25¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 67¢ 56¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Harry Dunn be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 18? No 59¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Dan Schwartz be the Democratic nominee for MD-01? No 7¢ 7¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 36¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 39¢ 6¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-86%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Rostikfacekid Club vs TPaBoMaH Club (BO3) - Winline Star Serie Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Heilbronn: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4 Jun 17 $2 $0 -19%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 17 $2 $0 +22%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Pl Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Cameroon vs Mali Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Selangor Red Giants vs Bigetron MY by VIT (B Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Makarska: Simona Waltert vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $234 −$160 -68%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Jun 17 $2 $0 -20%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 Jun 17 $2 $0 -4%
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.2m & 4 Jun 17 $1 $0 -28%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Jun 17 $20 −$10 -50%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $82 +$17 +21%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Aura Farmers vs Aterion Esports (BO3) - BetB Jun 17 $6 +$1 +23%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 16 $9 +$3 +27%
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Hyu Kawanishi Jun 16 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +31%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $5 +$3 +54%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 -9%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $7 +$13 +172%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +47%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $10 +$2 +24%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe S Jun 04 $30 +$7 +22%
Makarska: Katarzyna Kawa vs Maya Joint Jun 04 $10 +$6 +59%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $30 +$9 +29%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs DRX Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seas Jun 04 $30 +$3 +11%
Makarska: Petra Marcinko vs Caijsa Hennemann Jun 04 $40 +$10 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 04 $2 +$2 +114%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 04 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 Action of the Year? Jun 04 $6 −$3 -53%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $28 +$27 +97%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 30 $3 +$2 +73%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 30 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 29 $5 +$2 +30%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries May 29 $2 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24m
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 24m
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 26m
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 26m
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 27m
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $44 31m
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 33m
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 35m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $39 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 22¢ $10 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $30 13h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY No 14¢ $6 19h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY No 14¢ $1 19h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $14 19h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 19h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $2 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $18 20h
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 20h
Will Dan Schwartz be the Democratic nominee for MD-01? BUY No 7¢ $4 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $11 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $18 20h
Will Harry Dunn be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 20h
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $2 20h
Will Dan Schwartz be the Democratic nominee for MD-01? SELL No 7¢ $7 20h
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? SELL No 92¢ $13 20h
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $358.04 · official $357.59 (match) · 189 history records