Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:12:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3B 0x3bac…fae6 sports 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist
Total PnL +$237 (+32%) realized +$238 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR72%break-even
Win rate72%29W / 11L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$135
14 days+$242
30 days+$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$247
other 17% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)+28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +37.2% +24.1% 65% 65% +19.4%
≤30d 40 +41.7% +28.2% 72% 72% +23.2%
≤90d 40 +41.7% +28.2% 72% 72% +23.2%
all 40 +41.7% +28.2% 72% 72% +23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.2% 72% +23.2%
10% +15.9% 72% +11.4%
15% +4.7% 72% +0.7%
20% -5.5% 65% -9.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$17 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$238
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses29 / 11
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage16d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 76¢ 76¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $29 +$30 +101%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $11 −$11 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $80 +$31 +39%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 +$33 +109%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $15 +$19 +123%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $9 +$12 +134%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 +$29 +97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $22 −$21 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $11 +$11 +98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $31 +$66 +216%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$12 +123%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $27 −$27 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$11 +105%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $11 +$11 +97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $8 +$8 +101%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$7 +146%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $15 +$16 +105%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $7 +$7 +105%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $14 +$11 +76%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $25 +$20 +83%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $30 +$12 +40%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $13 +$10 +76%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 +$10 +101%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $17 +$16 +95%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $11 +$5 +48%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $8 +$4 +57%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $8 +$5 +59%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $1 +$1 +86%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $3 +$3 +81%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $3 +$2 +76%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $5 +$5 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $99 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $30 13h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $29 18h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $11 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 82¢ $111 37h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $80 40h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $22 41h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $30 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $34 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $9 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $59 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 48¢ $22 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $11 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 31¢ $31 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 40¢ $21 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $11 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $22 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $27 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $22 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $11 7d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 7d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $8 7d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.11 · official $98.11 (match) · 71 history records