Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:16:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3bb6…944c sports 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$121 (-1%) realized −$121 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%13W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$197est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$121
14 days−$158
30 days−$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$152
other 10% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -5.3% -14.3% 25% 0% -11.7%
≤30d 48 -3.6% -12.8% 27% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 48 -3.6% -12.8% 27% 0% -11.1%
all 48 -3.6% -12.8% 27% 0% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 0% -11.1%
10% -21.1% 0% -19.6%
15% -28.7% 0% -27.4%
20% -35.7% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$121
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses13 / 35
Est. fees paid−$197
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage13d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $193 +$1 +0%
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Jun 23 $50 −$9 -18%
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) Jun 23 $25 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $265 $0 -0%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $490 −$10 -2%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $230 −$10 -4%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $53 −$2 -3%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 21 $220 $0 -0%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 21 $94 $0 -0%
Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Carstensz (+1.5) Jun 21 $310 −$66 -21%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 20 $473 −$1 -0%
Map Handicap: WW (-1.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (+1.5) Jun 19 $4 $0 -1%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $255 +$4 +1%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 19 $285 $0 -0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 19 $10 $0 -5%
United States to score first vs. Australia? Jun 19 $170 −$3 -2%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 18 $255 −$5 -2%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $17 −$1 -6%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $240 −$4 -2%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $110 +$2 +2%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $260 −$16 -6%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 17 $105 −$5 -5%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $95 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 17 $39 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 17 $19 $0 -2%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $120 +$5 +4%
Austria vs. Jordan: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $281 −$1 -0%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $170 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $145 −$5 -4%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $8 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $220 −$3 -1%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $483 +$2 +0%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $0 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $9 −$1 -6%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 14 $130 −$3 -3%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) Jun 13 $290 −$6 -2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $300 −$4 -1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $60 −$1 -1%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) Jun 13 $365 +$5 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $151 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $260 −$19 -7%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 12 $18 $0 -1%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 11 $315 +$2 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $300 −$9 -3%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $265 +$5 +2%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) Jun 11 $26 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL MOUZ 64¢ $187 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL MOUZ 64¢ $2 2h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL MOUZ 64¢ $5 2h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MOUZ 63¢ $193 2h
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular SELL KRÜ Blaze $20 3h
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular SELL KRÜ Blaze $20 3h
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) SELL Sashi Esport 28¢ $24 15h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL K27 53¢ $265 16h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 53¢ $265 17h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 48¢ $70 18h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 48¢ $67 18h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 48¢ $41 18h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 48¢ $9 18h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 48¢ $5 18h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 48¢ $269 18h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 48¢ $19 18h
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) BUY Sashi Esport 27¢ $1 26h
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) BUY Sashi Esport 27¢ $1 26h
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) BUY Sashi Esport 29¢ $2 26h
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) BUY Sashi Esport 29¢ $22 26h
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular BUY KRÜ Blaze 10¢ $50 28h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $245 37h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $245 37h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner SELL Grind Back 43¢ $36 39h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner SELL Grind Back 43¢ $34 40h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner SELL Grind Back 43¢ $30 40h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner SELL Grind Back 43¢ $1 40h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner SELL Grind Back 43¢ $9 40h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 52¢ $51 43h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner SELL Grind Back 45¢ $78 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 217 history records