Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:52:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3B 0x3bb6…c956 crypto 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,717 (-14%) realized −$5,717 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate43%22W / 29L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$830per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$405est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$102
7 days−$4,132
14 days−$3,571
30 days−$3,571
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$1,536
crypto 14% −$2,143
other 11% −$2,034
world 4% −$568
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -36.6% -42.6% 50% 36% -39.8%
≤30d 15 -34.0% -40.3% 53% 33% -19.2%
≤90d 51 -24.1% -31.3% 43% 35% -22.9%
all 51 -24.1% -31.3% 43% 35% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.3% 35% -22.9%
10% -37.9% 31% -30.3%
15% -43.9% 24% -37.0%
20% -49.4% 22% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$577) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$159 vs −$337 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,717
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses22 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$405
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage83d
Avg bet$830
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $505 −$349 -69%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $755 +$247 +33%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $668 +$2 +0%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $502 −$500 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $505 +$256 +51%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $499 −$496 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $603 +$110 +18%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,007 −$1,000 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1,308 +$286 +22%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1,003 −$1,000 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $997 +$312 +31%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,026 −$2,014 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,991 +$30 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $20,872 +$561 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 31 $538 −$517 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 31 $600 −$577 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 31 $221 −$210 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $499 −$50 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 31 $161 −$155 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 31 $67 −$63 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 30 $559 −$549 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 30 $229 −$225 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Mar 30 $200 −$170 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 30 $486 −$477 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 30 $200 −$197 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 30 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 30 $100 +$154 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 30 $100 +$96 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 30 $100 +$44 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 30 $50 +$58 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 30 $109 +$95 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 30 $150 −$49 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 30 $50 +$32 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 30 $100 +$135 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 30 $129 −$127 -99%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 30 $100 +$29 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 30? Mar 30 $275 −$186 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 30 $100 +$61 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 30 $200 +$276 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 30 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 30 $50 +$38 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 30 $47 −$46 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 30? Mar 30 $5 −$1 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 30? Mar 30 $350 +$78 +22%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 30 $200 −$28 -14%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 29, 202 Mar 30 $396 −$396 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $1,164 −$7 -1%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 30, 202 Mar 30 $164 −$164 -100%
Heat vs. Pacers Mar 29 $513 +$51 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 22¢ $156 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $505 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,002 46h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 74¢ $755 46h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 99¢ $670 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 99¢ $668 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 88¢ $502 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $761 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $505 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $499 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $713 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $603 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $1,007 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 99¢ $1,593 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 81¢ $1,308 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 91¢ $1,003 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 82¢ $115 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 86¢ $1,194 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 72¢ $16 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 64¢ $997 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $995 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,031 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,991 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 81¢ $8,758 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 63¢ $2,233 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $9,133 8d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 63¢ $4,371 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 79¢ $5,527 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 78¢ $6,070 10d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 78¢ $1,024 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 126 history records