Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:07:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3bb7…4a53 sports 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,121 (-22%) realized −$1,104 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%51W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$91
14 days+$91
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$303
other 48% −$1,521
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +30.9% +18.4% 67% 58% +15.9%
≤30d 12 +30.9% +18.4% 67% 58% +15.9%
≤90d 123 -9.2% -17.8% 41% 40% -31.0%
all 123 -9.2% -17.8% 41% 40% -31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 40% -31.0%
10% -25.7% 40% -37.6%
15% -32.9% 40% -43.7%
20% -39.5% 39% -49.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$45 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized−$1,104
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses51 / 72
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions3
Markets (closed)123 / 126
History coverage68d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? No 35¢ 72¢ $50 $102 +$52 (+104%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 28¢ $25 $11 −$14 (-56%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 58¢ 8¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Yes 58¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France leading at halftime? Jun 23 $40 −$40 -100%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $52 +$49 +94%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $76 +$1 +1%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $26 +$15 +60%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 22 $26 +$22 +84%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $15 +$13 +88%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 21 $15 +$24 +156%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $8 +$8 +99%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $22 +$20 +91%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Madrid Open: Clara Tauson vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 20 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw? May 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - VCT Pacific Pla May 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs DetonatioN FocusMe - Map 2 Winner May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Gr May 09 $6 +$6 +104%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? May 09 $70 −$70 -100%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 08 $44 −$44 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 08 $38 −$38 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner May 08 $7 −$6 -96%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 08 $12 +$23 +194%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $190 −$190 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $26 +$19 +74%
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 07 $8 +$15 +196%
Valorant: DRX vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner May 07 $8 +$10 +124%
Valorant: DRX vs FULL SENSE - Map 1 Winner May 07 $9 +$12 +126%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner May 07 $23 +$27 +116%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner May 07 $1 +$3 +242%
Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5) May 07 $80 −$80 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 07 $39 −$39 -100%
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Division One (BO5) - VCL North Am May 07 $5 +$3 +53%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $68 −$68 -100%
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $26 +$18 +72%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Dorado Gaming vs Apex Mission Impossible (BO3) - North American C Apr 25 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Dorado Gaming vs Apex Mission Impossible - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 25 $44 −$40 -90%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $97 −$97 -100%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $147 −$147 -100%
Madrid Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Tomas Etcheverry Apr 24 $96 −$96 -100%
Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin vs. Shanghai Sharks Apr 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 35¢ $52 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $26 1h
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 7h
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $17 7h
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $34 7h
France leading at halftime? BUY No 24¢ $7 8h
France leading at halftime? BUY No 27¢ $15 8h
France leading at halftime? BUY No 27¢ $1 8h
France leading at halftime? BUY No 27¢ $10 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 19¢ $5 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 19¢ $5 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 19¢ $5 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 17¢ $2 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 17¢ $6 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 17¢ $2 10h
France leading at halftime? BUY No 26¢ $7 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $26 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 14h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $26 27h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $26 30h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $2 38h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $6 38h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $1 38h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $2 38h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $1 38h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $2 38h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY No 49¢ $3 2d
Japan leading at halftime? BUY No 49¢ $2 2d
Japan leading at halftime? BUY No 49¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.77 · official $113.78 (match) · 450 history records