Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:38:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3B 0x3bb9…7973 other 1159 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%1154W / 5L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$14
sports 42% +$2
politics 2% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 1% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 +0.2% -9.3% 99% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 306 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 1% -9.2%
≤90d 969 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 1% -9.2%
all 1159 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 1% -9.2%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.77 per $1 lost it wins $2.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1154 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1159 / 1159
History coverage116d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1159 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Alexander Isak: 4+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Alexander Bernhardsson: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Anis Ben Slimane: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Colton Sissons lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Elias Achouri: 3+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Rayan Elloumi: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Rayan Elloumi: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Rayan Elloumi: 1+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Khalil Ayari: 3+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Oumar Diakité: 3+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Kento Shiogai: 3+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Memphis Depay: 3+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Ritsu Dōan: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Cuiabá EC 0 - 1 Vila Nova FC? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: GenOne (-9.5) vs Ursa (+9.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Kō Itakura: 4+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Jearl Margaritha: 3+ shots Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mercedes have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Catalu Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Jamal Musiala: 4+ shots on target Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: CD Concepción 3 - 2 CD Limache? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: IR Tanger 2 - 3 US Yacoub El Mansour? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: FK Haugesund 1 - 3 Ranheim? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Oxuji Esports (-3.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+3.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Barış Alper Yılmaz: 3+ shots on target Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Australia to win the second half? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Selena Gomez attend Game 5 of the NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Abdülkerim Bardakcı: 3+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Luke Kornet lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total assists? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Ben Gannon-Doak: 2+ assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Duckens Nazon: 5+ shots Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
John McGinn: 2+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Johan Manzambi: 1+ shots on target Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ shots on target Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bruno Guimarães: 4+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Raphinha: 1+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Rayan: 4+ shots Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
MLP Austin: Miami Pickleball Club vs Columbus Sliders Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Manuel Akanji: 2+ goals + assists Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump post "Barack Hussein Obama" on Truth Social this week? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Vaasan Palloseura 3 - 3 Kuopion Palloseura? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: HEROIC Academy (-3.5) vs RUSTEC (+3.5) Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Lim vs. Pucar: Total Games O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Schuman vs. Ha: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Alexander Isak: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Alexander Bernhardsson: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Anis Ben Slimane: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Elias Achouri: 3+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Rayan Elloumi: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Rayan Elloumi: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Rayan Elloumi: 1+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Khalil Ayari: 3+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will Colton Sissons lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals? BUY No 100¢ $5 4h
Oumar Diakité: 3+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? BUY Under 99¢ $5 7h
Memphis Depay: 3+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 7h
Ritsu Dōan: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 7h
Kento Shiogai: 3+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Cuiabá EC 0 - 1 Vila Nova FC? BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
Kō Itakura: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
Jearl Margaritha: 3+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 10h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: GenOne (-9.5) vs Ursa (+9.5) BUY Ursa 100¢ $5 11h
Jamal Musiala: 4+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 12h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Odd 100¢ $5 12h
Exact Score: CD Concepción 3 - 2 CD Limache? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 13h
Will Mercedes have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Catalu BUY No 100¢ $2 13h
Exact Score: IR Tanger 2 - 3 US Yacoub El Mansour? BUY No 100¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: FK Haugesund 1 - 3 Ranheim? BUY No 100¢ $5 15h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 16h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Oxuji Esports (-3.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+3.5) BUY Oxuji Esports 100¢ $5 18h
Barış Alper Yılmaz: 3+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 23h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $5 25h
Australia to win the second half? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2607 history records