Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:46:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3bba…a2ea weather 1085 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$699 (-1%) realized −$665 · open −$34
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate71%774W / 309L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day46.5pace
Fees−$154est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$182
14 days+$99
30 days+$588
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$39
weather 25% −$317
other 1% −$51
crypto 0% +$19
culture 0% +$1
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -8.7% -17.4% 70% 27% -11.7%
≤30d 410 -2.9% -12.2% 78% 34% -8.1%
≤90d 1083 -7.9% -16.6% 71% 26% -9.8%
all 1083 -7.9% -16.6% 71% 26% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 26% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 12% -18.5%
15% -31.9% 8% -26.3%
20% -38.6% 6% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$17 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$665
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses774 / 309
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$154
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1083 / 1085
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$73
Trades / day46.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1083 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 Over 72¢ 51¢ $102 $72 −$30 (-29%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $7 −$3 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 168.5 Jun 20 $132 −$88 -67%
Spread: New York Liberty (-12.5) Jun 20 $14 +$1 +10%
Spread: New York Liberty (-11.5) Jun 20 $167 +$18 +11%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $226 +$8 +4%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 167.5 Jun 20 $108 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $45 +$5 +12%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $775 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $26 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $21 +$24 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $7 +$12 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $6 +$2 +30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $39 +$11 +28%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$11 +235%
ITF Tokyo: Max Purcell vs Hikaru Shiraishi Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 18 $45 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 18 $30 +$3 +11%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 172.5 Jun 18 $67 +$4 +6%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 173.5 Jun 18 $38 +$2 +6%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-10.5) Jun 18 $18 +$1 +6%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $160 $0 +0%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 166.5 Jun 18 $92 +$7 +7%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire: O/U 161.5 Jun 18 $173 +$12 +7%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 165.5 Jun 18 $54 +$1 +2%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $8 +$2 +25%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 171.5 Jun 18 $45 −$39 -86%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 167.5 Jun 18 $112 +$17 +15%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 167.5 Jun 18 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
ITF Bucharest: Eva Maria Ionescu vs Iulia Maria Buculei Jun 17 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 +$2 +13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
ITF Maanshan: Dong Ju Kim vs Moerani Bouzige Jun 17 $1 +$2 +238%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $97 +$3 +3%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $5 −$3 -67%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 168.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 Jun 16 $591 +$44 +7%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Jun 16 $14 +$1 +5%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $220 +$5 +2%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5) Jun 16 $35 +$1 +2%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-15.5) Jun 16 $83 +$2 +2%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) Jun 16 $34 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 BUY Over 67¢ $34 29m
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 BUY Over 75¢ $70 33m
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 168.5 SELL Under $1 1h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 168.5 BUY Over 98¢ $42 1h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 167.5 BUY Over 98¢ $108 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 93¢ $32 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 97¢ $58 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 97¢ $136 1h
Spread: New York Liberty (-11.5) BUY Washington Mystics 90¢ $167 1h
Spread: New York Liberty (-12.5) BUY Washington Mystics 90¢ $14 1h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 168.5 BUY Under 90¢ $90 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 89¢ $45 21h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Atlanta Dream 99¢ $644 24h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Atlanta Dream 98¢ $98 24h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Atlanta Dream 98¢ $17 24h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Atlanta Dream 98¢ $17 24h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 28¢ $5 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 77¢ $39 35h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $26 36h
ITF Tokyo: Max Purcell vs Hikaru Shiraishi BUY Hikaru Shiraishi $4 43h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 28¢ $13 44h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 45¢ $21 44h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 44h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 18? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 44h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 44h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 44h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 173.5 BUY Under 97¢ $10 46h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 172.5 BUY Under 97¢ $10 46h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 172.5 BUY Under 97¢ $33 46h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 172.5 BUY Under 90¢ $15 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.96 · official $79.67 (match) · 3500 history records