Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:18:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3B 0x3bba…f1c1 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$86 (+14%) realized +$91 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$54
14 days+$80
30 days+$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$49
sports 18% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +8.1% -2.2% 50% 50% +3.2%
≤30d 5 +11.2% +0.6% 60% 60% +5.2%
≤90d 5 +11.2% +0.6% 60% 60% +5.2%
all 5 +11.2% +0.6% 60% 60% +5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 60% +5.2%
10% -9.0% 60% -4.9%
15% -17.8% 40% -14.1%
20% -25.8% 20% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$28 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.42 per $1 lost it wins $2.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized+$91
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage11d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $135 $130 −$5 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$10 -20%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $141 +$60 +43%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 −$47 -46%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $91 +$51 +56%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $111 +$26 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 56¢ $41 20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 32h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $201 36h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 44h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 36¢ $54 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $142 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $137 8d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 80¢ $111 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.04 · official $134.01 · 16 history records