Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:53:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3bba…7774 other 42 markets active 10h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$188 (-34%) realized −$187 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -73% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -76% what you keep after slip
Net edge-76%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate5%2W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$181
world 42% −$1
sports 4% −$21
crypto 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-75.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -29.1% -35.8% 0% 0% -37.1%
≤30d 11 -75.6% -77.9% 0% 0% -79.2%
≤90d 40 -72.8% -75.4% 5% 2% -44.2%
all 40 -72.8% -75.4% 5% 2% -44.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -75.4% 2% -44.2%
10% -77.8% 2% -49.5%
15% -79.9% 0% -54.4%
20% -81.9% 0% -58.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -73% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -68% → late -77% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$187
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses2 / 38
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage75d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in June 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-15%)
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in July 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in June 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$3 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in May 2026? May 31 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in May 2026? May 30 $6 −$6 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in May 2026? May 30 $9 −$7 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in May 2026? May 24 $12 −$11 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in May 2026? May 23 $4 −$2 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in May 2026? May 20 $0 $0 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $14 −$13 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $10 −$7 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $8 −$6 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $7 −$5 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $6 −$6 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $24 −$15 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $24 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $6 −$5 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $16 −$11 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $4 $0 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $3 +$1 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 11 $14 −$14 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $236 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 9? Apr 09 $16 −$1 -7%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 03 $3 $0 -7%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 03 $1 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 10h
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 10h
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 22h
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 22h
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 41h
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 41h
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 2d
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 3d
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 3d
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 5d
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in July 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 17d
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in May 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17d
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in May 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 18d
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in May 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 18d
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in May 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 18d
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in May 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 18d
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in May 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 18d
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in May 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 20d
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in May 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 20d
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in May 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 20d
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in May 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 20d
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in May 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20d
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in May 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24d
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in May 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 24d
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in May 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24d
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in May 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24d
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in May 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 25d
Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in May 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.80 · official $9.80 (match) · 286 history records