Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:40:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3bbb…48f2 crypto 342 markets active 6h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,989 (-6%) realized −$2,989 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%162W / 180L
Whale WR32%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$399est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$733
7 days−$8,555
14 days−$8,349
30 days−$6,552
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$280
crypto 39% −$1,397
other 9% −$874
tech 5% −$1,692
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 255 -18.6% -26.3% 42% 34% -29.2%
≤30d 270 -14.2% -22.4% 44% 37% -23.6%
≤90d 329 -5.8% -14.7% 47% 40% -16.8%
all 342 -3.5% -12.7% 47% 41% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 41% -16.7%
10% -21.0% 35% -24.7%
15% -28.7% 27% -31.9%
20% -35.7% 20% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 32% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$77 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,989
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses162 / 180
Whale WR (big bets)32%
Est. fees paid−$399
Open positions0
Markets (closed)342 / 342
History coverage102d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 342 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $167 −$43 -26%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $903 −$721 -80%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 180.5 Jun 17 $184 −$180 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $138 −$50 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$6 +23%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $304 −$38 -12%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $228 −$74 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $109 −$36 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $33 +$5 +15%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $169 +$119 +70%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $60 +$2 +3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $91 +$19 +21%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $34 +$21 +63%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $40 −$39 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $33 −$24 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$16 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $53 +$29 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $47 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $75 +$21 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $251 +$49 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$2 +9%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $73 +$36 +50%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $32 −$31 -98%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $111 +$28 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $60 −$22 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $47 −$46 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $190 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $57 +$34 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $98 +$16 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $90 +$114 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $152 −$73 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $207 −$69 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $107 +$36 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $38 −$36 -96%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $46 +$39 +86%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $85 +$45 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $38 +$32 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $121 −$25 -21%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $63 −$29 -47%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $202 −$53 -26%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$36 +35%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 +$215 +209%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $404 +$172 +42%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $11 5h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Algeria 52¢ $43 6h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Algeria 52¢ $53 6h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Algeria 52¢ $74 6h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $589 8h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 180.5 BUY Under 25¢ $184 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1669 history records