Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:03:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3B 0x3bbd…508d finance 78 markets active 0h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy finance specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,297 (+5%) realized +$2,298 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate52%40W / 37L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$599per market
Trades / day26.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$176
14 days−$635
30 days−$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 100% +$2,039
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -35.5% -41.7% 50% 25% -18.3%
≤30d 18 -18.0% -25.8% 39% 22% -10.5%
≤90d 59 -0.7% -10.1% 49% 27% -5.8%
all 77 +2.8% -7.0% 52% 32% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.0% 32% -5.5%
10% -15.9% 19% -14.6%
15% ← realistic here -24.0% 10% -22.8%
20% -31.5% 10% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$760) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
21.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$146 vs −$103 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized+$2,298
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses40 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage116d
Avg bet$599
Trades / day26.6
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? Up 29¢ 30¢ $107 $111 +$4 (+3%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? Down 74¢ 70¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $164 +$51 +31%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? Jun 18 $298 −$244 -82%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1,266 +$95 +8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? Jun 16 $78 −$77 -99%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 13 $589 −$40 -7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 12 $479 −$70 -15%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 11 $911 −$36 -4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $410 −$222 -54%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? Jun 09 $1,259 −$90 -7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $291 +$29 +10%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $932 +$52 +6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $1,683 +$337 +20%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $1,083 +$280 +26%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1? Jun 02 $409 −$161 -39%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $237 −$225 -95%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $663 +$419 +63%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $251 −$207 -82%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $262 −$10 -4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 22? May 23 $413 −$148 -36%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $478 +$13 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $1,013 +$298 +29%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $449 +$79 +18%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 15? May 16 $327 +$54 +17%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 14? May 15 $156 −$156 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 13? May 14 $1,030 −$405 -39%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 12? May 13 $279 +$14 +5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11? May 12 $973 +$86 +9%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 8? May 09 $1,248 −$14 -1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 7? May 08 $608 −$177 -29%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 6? May 07 $211 −$211 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 4? May 05 $431 +$441 +102%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 1? May 02 $555 −$69 -12%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 30? May 01 $799 +$35 +4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 29? Apr 30 $384 +$660 +172%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 28? Apr 28 $275 −$94 -34%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 27? Apr 28 $855 +$461 +54%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 24? Apr 25 $448 −$182 -41%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 23? Apr 24 $400 +$130 +32%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 22? Apr 23 $1,143 +$165 +14%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 21? Apr 22 $760 −$15 -2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 20? Apr 21 $767 +$91 +12%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 17? Apr 18 $529 +$3 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 16? Apr 17 $593 +$60 +10%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 15? Apr 16 $326 −$91 -28%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 14? Apr 15 $504 −$79 -16%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 13? Apr 14 $835 +$77 +9%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 10? Apr 10 $621 −$42 -7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 9? Apr 10 $168 +$679 +403%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 8? Apr 09 $187 −$9 -5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 7? Apr 08 $270 +$29 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up 30¢ $78 4m
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 71¢ $8 12m
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 76¢ $21 36m
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 76¢ $19 36m
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 76¢ $24 46m
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 77¢ $35 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up 17¢ $13 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 86¢ $3 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 84¢ $78 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 84¢ $5 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 92¢ $47 3h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 70¢ $6 3h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? SELL Up 35¢ $5 4h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? SELL Up 36¢ $6 5h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 54¢ $6 5h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 64¢ $76 5h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 67¢ $67 7h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 67¢ $10 7h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 72¢ $56 8h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 74¢ $73 8h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? SELL Up 31¢ $23 8h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? SELL Up 33¢ $2 8h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 66¢ $22 8h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 66¢ $68 9h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 69¢ $14 9h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? SELL Up 43¢ $20 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 52¢ $26 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 52¢ $52 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 52¢ $3 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 52¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.02 · official $133.02 (match) · 3363 history records