Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:53:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
3B 0x3bbe…03c5 sports 573 markets active 0h ago coverage 189d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,150 (+15%) realized +$4,141 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate57%327W / 243L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$232
7 days+$154
14 days+$216
30 days+$1,293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$2,640
other 35% +$1,438
world 1% −$2
crypto 0% +$8
politics 0% −$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +8.4% -1.9% 62% 19% -3.7%
≤30d 70 +44.0% +30.3% 66% 41% +2.7%
≤90d 153 +73.6% +57.1% 59% 42% +2.6%
all 570 +32.4% +19.8% 57% 44% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.8% 44% +2.1%
10% +8.3% 39% -7.7%
15% -2.2% 36% -16.6%
20% -11.7% 31% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +62% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$23 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$4,141
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses327 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions3
Markets (closed)570 / 573
History coverage189d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 570 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bilibili Gaming Golden Road in 2026? No 76¢ 88¢ $61 $71 +$10 (+16%)
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the England vs Ghana FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 21¢ 14¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $1 +$1 +135%
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the England vs G Jun 23 $57 +$1 +2%
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIF Jun 23 $172 +$5 +3%
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan F Jun 23 $227 +$5 +2%
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Portugal vs Jun 23 $117 +$2 +2%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FI Jun 23 $90 +$3 +3%
Will the announcers say "History" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FI Jun 23 $22 $0 +2%
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIFA Jun 23 $39 $0 +1%
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the France vs Ir Jun 23 $5 $0 +4%
Will LOUD qualify to the EWC Jun 22 $1 $0 -29%
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Argentina vs Austria FIFA Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the France vs Iraq FIFA World C Jun 22 $0 $0 -3%
Will Dplus Challengers Win Asia Masters 2026 Jun 22 $334 −$252 -75%
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Argentina vs Austria FIFA Wo Jun 22 $19 +$1 +6%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $511 +$389 +76%
Will T1 Esports Academy Win Asia Masters 2026 Jun 21 $658 −$196 -30%
Will RED Canids qualify to the EWC Jun 19 $1 −$1 -61%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $111 +$189 +170%
Will Anthony Gordon be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $6 +$11 +177%
Will KT Challengers Win Asia Masters 2026 Jun 17 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Nuno Mendes be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -93%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Giuliano Simeone be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Nahuel Molina be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 16 $8 +$27 +353%
Will Vivo Keyd Stars qualify to the EWC Jun 15 $0 $0 +94%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Pau Cubarsí be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Álex Baena be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $3 +$18 +711%
Will David Raya be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -87%
Will Nico Williams be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $16 +$4 +22%
Will Martín Zubimendi be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $18 +$5 +30%
Will Marc Cucurella be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Aymeric Laporte be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Gonzalo Montiel be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 15 $3 +$16 +474%
Will Shogo Taniguchi be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -89%
Will Nélson Semedo be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +100%
Will Kaishu Sano be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +62%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Will William Saliba be in France's Starting 11? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +80%
Will Bernardo Silva be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Mark McKenzie be in the starting 11 for the USA's first 2026 FIFA Jun 12 $2 +$12 +764%
Will Memphis Depay be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 12 $2 +$8 +383%
Will G3V E-sports win LRN 2026 Split 1? Jun 09 $101 +$11 +11%
Will Fuego win LRN 2026 Split 1? Jun 09 $970 +$107 +11%
Will Lyon qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 08 $85 +$2 +2%
Will Secret Whales win LCP 2026 Split 2? Jun 07 $218 +$5 +2%
Will FlyQuest win LCS 2026 Spring? Jun 07 $718 +$63 +9%
Will Movistar KOI win LEC 2026 Spring? Jun 06 $1,707 +$303 +18%
Will LOS win CBLOL 2026 Split 1? Jun 06 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs Jun 06 $138 +$63 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 50¢ $2 9m
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the England vs G SELL Yes 100¢ $1 55m
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the England vs G SELL Yes 100¢ $5 55m
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the England vs G SELL Yes 100¢ $5 55m
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the England vs G SELL Yes 100¢ $5 55m
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the England vs G SELL Yes 100¢ $5 55m
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the England vs G SELL Yes 100¢ $5 55m
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the England vs G SELL Yes 100¢ $32 55m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $1 58m
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the England vs Ghana FIFA World BUY Yes 96¢ $25 1h
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the England vs G BUY Yes 98¢ $57 1h
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Portugal vs BUY Yes 98¢ $117 4h
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIFA SELL Yes 97¢ $29 4h
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIFA SELL Yes 99¢ $7 4h
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIF BUY Yes 97¢ $172 4h
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIFA SELL Yes 99¢ $2 4h
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIFA BUY Yes 96¢ $39 4h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FI BUY Yes 97¢ $90 4h
Will the announcers say "History" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FI BUY Yes 98¢ $22 4h
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan F BUY Yes 98¢ $196 4h
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan F BUY Yes 96¢ $31 4h
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the France vs Ir BUY Yes 96¢ $5 22h
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the France vs Ir SELL No 0¢ $0 22h
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the France vs Ir BUY No 0¢ $0 22h
Will LOUD qualify to the EWC SELL Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the France vs Ir SELL No 0¢ $0 22h
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the France vs Ir BUY No 0¢ $0 22h
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the France vs Ir SELL No 0¢ $0 23h
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the France vs Ir SELL No 0¢ $0 23h
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the France vs Ir BUY No 0¢ $0 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.10 · official $100.10 (match) · 2091 history records