Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:31:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3bbf…aa1e sports 55 markets active 3d ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$230 (-17%) realized −$230 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%19W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$159
14 days−$74
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$209
other 16% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -40.6% -46.2% 20% 20% -67.7%
≤30d 31 -16.2% -24.2% 35% 35% -16.0%
≤90d 55 -29.5% -36.2% 35% 35% -25.3%
all 55 -29.5% -36.2% 35% 35% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.2% 35% -25.3%
10% -42.3% 33% -32.5%
15% -47.9% 31% -39.0%
20% -53.0% 25% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$23 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$230
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses19 / 36
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage70d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$58 +197%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $29 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $50 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $51 +$51 +101%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $31 +$40 +132%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $30 +$31 +103%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $31 +$24 +76%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $31 +$136 +442%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $51 +$30 +59%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $51 +$41 +81%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 −$19 -99%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $21 +$39 +182%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $69 +$33 +48%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $39 +$30 +78%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? Apr 23 $41 −$41 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Apr 19 $23 +$18 +78%
Will Ipswich Town FC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw? Apr 19 $18 +$6 +32%
Wrestlefest: Jacob Fatu vs. Drew McIntyre Apr 19 $10 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Apr 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Wrestlefest: Cody Rhodes vs. Randy Orton Apr 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Wrestlefest: Stephanie Vaquer vs. Liv Morgan Apr 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Wrestlefest: AJ Lee vs. Becky Lynch Apr 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Apr 13 $36 −$36 -99%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $25 +$11 +43%
Will Burnley FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Apr 11 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - European Pro League S Apr 10 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $10 +$5 +52%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Wildcard - Map 1 Winner Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $101 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 99¢ $88 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $30 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $29 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 25¢ $41 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $50 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 36¢ $20 7d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY paiN 19¢ $20 9d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner BUY paiN 68¢ $50 9d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY M80 24¢ $31 9d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $102 10d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 49¢ $51 10d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY MIBR 21¢ $10 10d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL MIBR 99¢ $0 10d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL MIBR 99¢ $70 10d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY MIBR 42¢ $31 10d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner BUY Astralis 53¢ $30 10d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner SELL FlyQuest 0¢ $0 11d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner SELL B8 99¢ $62 11d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY GamerLegion 32¢ $31 11d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner BUY FlyQuest 43¢ $20 11d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 48¢ $30 11d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 11d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 6¢ $10 11d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL Monte 100¢ $166 11d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 18¢ $31 11d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 56¢ $31 11d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $81 11d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 62¢ $51 12d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL G2 99¢ $92 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records