Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:55:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3B 0x3bc3…384e other 364 markets active 3h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate67%240W / 117L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days−$32
14 days−$10
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$32
other 20% +$13
politics 4% +$7
finance 4% +$36
sports 3% −$89
tech 1% −$2
crypto 0% −$3
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -10.0% -18.6% 69% 54% -14.9%
≤30d 75 -7.1% -15.9% 72% 52% -11.8%
≤90d 197 -0.6% -10.1% 69% 49% -9.9%
all 357 -3.5% -12.7% 67% 41% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 41% -9.6%
10% -21.1% 31% -18.2%
15% -28.7% 20% -26.1%
20% -35.7% 12% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses240 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)357 / 364
History coverage119d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 357 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $55 $49 −$6 (-11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+10%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+59%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +19%
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +64%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 +$2 +11%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$6 +39%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Will DR Congo reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +42%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$3 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 +$2 +13%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 +$5 +16%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$4 -79%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -92%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$5 +24%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Waldemar Anton: 1+ shots Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Corners Jun 14 $1 $0 +21%
Angelo Stiller: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $2 +$1 +68%
Nico Schlotterbeck: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$4 +23%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$4 +18%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 −$7 -71%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$4 +18%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +21%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$3 +34%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will another candidate win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential Jun 11 $19 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 3h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 3h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $6 3h
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 3h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 89¢ $12 3h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 89¢ $4 3h
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 4h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $15 4h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 16h
Will DR Congo reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $5 22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $15 22h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $10 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 28h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $10 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 41h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 42h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $10 42h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 42h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY No 87¢ $1 47h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 47h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 100¢ $23 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $20 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $15 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $35 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 86¢ $30 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 SELL Over 19¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.50 · official $119.50 (match) · 2066 history records