Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:50:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3bc6…638b crypto 1576 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d only
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,237 (-9%) realized −$2,237 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%793W / 783L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day76.9pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$509
7 days−$260
14 days−$1,995
30 days−$2,272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$2,005
other 5% −$152
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 147 -22.4% -29.8% 42% 41% -26.6%
≤30d 1522 -8.2% -16.9% 50% 49% -18.5%
≤90d 1576 -8.0% -16.8% 50% 49% -17.6%
all 1576 -8.0% -16.8% 50% 49% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 49% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 48% -25.5%
15% -32.0% 46% -32.7%
20% -38.7% 42% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$14 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,237
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses793 / 783
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1576 / 1576
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day76.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1576 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $41 +$24 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $16 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $33 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $31 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $17 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records