Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:44:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3bca…0ef3 crypto 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 388d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$197 (-26%) realized −$197 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%4W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$53
14 days−$53
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$139
other 30% −$41
sports 3% −$5
world 3% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-36.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -21.8% -29.3% 18% 18% -28.2%
≤30d 15 -30.1% -36.8% 20% 20% -28.9%
≤90d 15 -30.1% -36.8% 20% 20% -28.9%
all 22 -29.8% -36.5% 18% 18% -34.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.5% 18% -34.1%
10% -42.6% 14% -40.4%
15% -48.1% 14% -46.2%
20% -53.2% 14% -51.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$14 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

388d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$197
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses4 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage388d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $41 −$2 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $51 −$3 -5%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$14 -67%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 $0 -2%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 $0 -9%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$43 -86%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 25 $51 −$14 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 25 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - August 20, 1AM ET Aug 20 $156 −$82 -53%
Solana above $180 on August 20? Aug 20 $177 −$21 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? Aug 18 $44 −$6 -13%
Will Orlando City beat CF Montréal? Jul 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $109K and $111K on July 11? Jul 10 $15 −$1 -6%
FIFA Club World Cup: PSG vs. Real Madrid (To Advance) Jul 09 $1 +$1 +59%
Will JD Vance say "Coin" 25+ times during Bitcoin 2025 appearance on M May 28 $11 −$9 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $39 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $49 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $41 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 7h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 7h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 41h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 41h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 42h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 43h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $20 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $7 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 25d
Solana Up or Down - August 20, 1AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $74 304d
Solana Up or Down - August 20, 1AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $156 304d
Solana above $180 on August 20? SELL Yes 49¢ $156 304d
Solana above $180 on August 20? BUY Yes 56¢ $177 304d
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? SELL Up 55¢ $38 305d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records