Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:37:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3B 0x3bcf…bb4d other 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate42%35W / 49L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$16
other 19% −$3
politics 4% +$4
finance 3% −$25
sports 1% +$6
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% +$1
weather 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 25% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 17 +0.2% -9.3% 35% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 28 +70.7% +54.4% 32% 4% -9.7%
all 84 +23.6% +11.8% 42% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.8% 6% -9.6%
10% +1.1% 4% -18.3%
15% -8.7% 4% -26.2%
20% -17.6% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late +48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses35 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 84
History coverage492d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $162 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $162 $0 +0%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 22 $148 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 20 $365 +$3 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $149 +$2 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $23 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,076 +$7 +1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $147 −$2 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $147 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $289 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $404 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $301 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $148 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $82 +$3 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $90 −$2 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $80 −$2 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $137 +$10 +7%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $135 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $248 −$25 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $143 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $1,010 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $919 −$3 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 12 $1,005 $0 +0%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $35 −$2 -6%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 11 $32 −$2 -7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 29 $918 $0 +0%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 11 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Dec 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will James Monroe Inglehart win the Tony for Best Leading Actor in a M Jun 08 $1 $0 -6%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 07 $2 $0 +18%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 07 $15 $0 -0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 05 $15 $0 -1%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15-1.19ºC in May 2025? Jun 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 04 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 01 $19 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 18 $15 $0 +1%
Will Italy be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98000 and $100000 on May 16? May 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 9–16? May 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 15 $15 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the San Francisco 49ers? May 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 64¢ $162 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 64¢ $19 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 64¢ $143 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $162 30h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $162 32h
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $148 3d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $148 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $147 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $147 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 94¢ $150 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 93¢ $149 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $23 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $11 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $11 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $0 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $3 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $2 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $2 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 16d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $109 16d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $37 16d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $147 17d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $147 17d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $74 17d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $74 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $6 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $6 18d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $2 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.25 · official $0.00 (match) · 241 history records