Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:27:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3B 0x3bcf…26c9 sports 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$119 (-1%) realized −$119 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%27W / 44L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$8
14 days−$111
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% −$24
other 19% +$2
culture 18% $0
sports 3% −$15
world 2% −$108
crypto 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -3.9% -13.1% 0% 0% -13.1%
≤30d 12 -16.8% -24.7% 17% 0% -23.4%
≤90d 26 -10.3% -18.8% 23% 15% -19.1%
all 71 -4.7% -13.8% 38% 35% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 35% -10.2%
10% -22.1% 35% -18.8%
15% -29.6% 34% -26.7%
20% -36.5% 31% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses27 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 71
History coverage228d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $45 −$2 -4%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $44 −$2 -4%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $49 −$2 -4%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $56 −$2 -4%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $34 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $38 −$36 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $149 +$9 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $78 −$73 -93%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $149 −$4 -2%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $27 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $115 −$9 -7%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $54 −$2 -4%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $60 −$5 -8%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $68 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $55 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $25 $0 -0%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi Apr 23 $12 +$7 +60%
Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Apr 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 13 $11 −$11 -99%
Wizards vs. Nets Apr 13 $7 +$5 +65%
Wild vs. Red Wings Apr 13 $6 +$6 +85%
Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 05 $7 −$7 -99%
Nuggets vs. Suns Apr 05 $11 +$5 +45%
LoL: Solary vs BIG (BO3) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Mar 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Illinois State Redbirds vs. Dayton Flyers Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Utah State Aggies vs. Villanova Wildcats Mar 24 $6 +$5 +84%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-03-20? Mar 24 $8 +$7 +78%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Suns vs. Raptors Mar 19 $10 +$5 +56%
National Cricket League, Women: Queensland Fire vs Victoria Mar 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Austin: Paula Badosa vs Bianca Andreescu Mar 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Canadiens vs. Ducks Mar 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors Mar 06 $14 +$11 +75%
Spread: Hornets (-12.5) Mar 03 $9 +$8 +92%
Oilers vs. Sharks Mar 03 $10 +$15 +144%
Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch? Feb 26 $3,031 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 26 $3,100 −$3 -0%
Chile Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Yannick Hanfmann Feb 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 25 $3,062 $0 +0%
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) Feb 25 $10 +$11 +108%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-02-22? Feb 25 $11 +$11 +104%
LoL: GIANTX vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 21 $12 −$12 -100%
T20 World Cup: New Zealand vs South Africa (Game 1) Feb 21 $9 +$8 +85%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-14? Feb 13 $6 −$6 -100%
George Mason Patriots vs. George Washington Revolutionaries Feb 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 13 $7 +$2 +28%
Ostrava Open: Diane Parry vs Nikola Bartunkova Feb 05 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $43 1h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 8h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 10h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 10h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 11h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 11h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 13h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 14h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 14h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 14h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 15h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $13 16h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $13 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 302 history records