Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:08:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3bd1…ed4b other 562 markets active 2h ago coverage 187d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$358 (-0%) realized −$356 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate82%457W / 103L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$242per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$247
7 days−$475
14 days−$475
30 days−$467
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$64
crypto 9% +$5
sports 2% −$355
culture 2% +$5
weather 1% +$2
tech 1% +$3
politics 0% +$2
world 0% +$1
economics 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -22.3% -29.7% 44% 35% -28.6%
≤30d 103 -16.5% -24.4% 55% 31% -26.9%
≤90d 236 -5.2% -14.2% 78% 18% -11.4%
all 560 -1.9% -11.3% 82% 8% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 8% -9.8%
10% -19.7% 4% -18.4%
15% -27.5% 3% -26.3%
20% -34.6% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

187d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$356
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses457 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)560 / 562
History coverage187d
Avg bet$242
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 560 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 56¢ $48 $46 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $24 −$21 -85%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting Jun 20 $7 −$1 -8%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $49 −$21 -44%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $49 −$2 -4%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 20 $49 +$5 +11%
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $50 −$9 -18%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $63 +$3 +4%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $45 +$55 +124%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $41 +$21 +50%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $8 +$12 +146%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $49 +$8 +17%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 +$9 +19%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46 −$8 -17%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $3 +$2 +73%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $39 +$26 +68%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$7 +13%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $3 +$2 +62%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $98 +$6 +6%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $3 +$2 +86%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $48 +$27 +57%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $19 +$21 +114%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $9 +$4 +41%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $49 +$4 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $50 +$23 +47%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $49 +$35 +71%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 +$6 +63%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$2 -21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$15 +78%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $48 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $48 1h
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner SELL Hive 6¢ $4 6h
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Hive 40¢ $24 7h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY summer bear 27¢ $50 8h
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting SELL Yes 54¢ $7 8h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 41¢ $28 8h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 66¢ $47 8h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $49 8h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner BUY summer bear 46¢ $49 9h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 70¢ $45 10h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $4 10h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 58¢ $49 10h
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B SELL xept 49¢ $55 11h
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain - Map 2 Winner SELL xept 49¢ $41 11h
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY xept 38¢ $9 12h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY INOX Division 49¢ $41 13h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY INOX Division 49¢ $9 13h
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY xept 33¢ $9 13h
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain - Map 2 Winner BUY xept 49¢ $16 13h
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY xept 49¢ $4 13h
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY xept 49¢ $1 13h
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY xept 47¢ $27 13h
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain - Map 2 Winner BUY xept 63¢ $35 13h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $13 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $0 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $0 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $0 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $0 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $11 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.22 · official $93.23 (match) · 1863 history records