Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:07:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3B 0x3bd4…05b7 weather 166 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL +$39 (+3%) realized +$36 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate97%157W / 5L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 48% +$8
crypto 27% +$16
other 10% +$18
tech 6% −$10
finance 3% +$1
world 2% +$1
politics 1% $0
sports 1% +$3
culture 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +23.7% +11.9% 100% 50% +14.9%
≤90d 162 +2.7% -7.0% 97% 9% -6.9%
all 162 +2.7% -7.0% 97% 9% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 9% -6.9%
10% -15.9% 2% -15.8%
15% -24.1% 1% -23.9%
20% -31.5% 1% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.43 per $1 lost it wins $2.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses157 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)162 / 166
History coverage67d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 11¢ 12¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Yes 33¢ 38¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on May 2? Yes 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on May 7? No 98¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 12? No 93¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 12? No 68¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 28 $13 +$12 +89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 19? May 19 $10 +$2 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? May 19 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 18? May 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on May 16? May 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ma May 16 $10 $0 +3%
Will Meta (META) finish week of May 11 above $620? May 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on May 13? May 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May May 13 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 13? May 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 13? May 13 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 71°F or below on May 12? May 12 $5 $0 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 12? May 12 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 12? May 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on May 12? May 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $6 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ma May 12 $10 +$2 +17%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 11? May 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 12? May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 11? May 11 $10 +$3 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 30°C on May 11? May 11 $8 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on May 11? May 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 10? May 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ma May 11 $4 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 10? May 10 $11 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on May 10? May 10 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 10? May 10 $5 $0 +5%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 10? May 10 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 10? May 10 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 10? May 10 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on May 10? May 10 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 66°F or higher on May 9? May 10 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 9? May 09 $5 $0 +4%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $280 on May 8? May 08 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on May 8? May 08 $5 +$1 +19%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 8? May 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will Lutfur Rahman win the 2026 London Borough of Tower Hamlets mayora May 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on May 7? May 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C or below on May 8? May 08 $11 $0 +1%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 7? May 07 $10 $0 +2%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on May 7? May 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma May 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on May 6? May 07 $10 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on May 6? May 07 $10 $0 +2%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 6? May 06 $10 $0 +2%
Will New York Times (NYT) beat quarterly earnings? May 06 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on May 6? May 06 $6 $0 +2%
Will Brian Poindexter be the Democratic nominee for OH-07? May 06 $10 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 on May 5? May 06 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY No 11¢ $5 1h
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 21¢ $22 17d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 22¢ $5 17d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 6¢ $5 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 18? BUY No 94¢ $10 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 19? BUY No 81¢ $10 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 27d
Will Meta (META) finish week of May 11 above $620? BUY No 92¢ $10 30d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ma BUY No 97¢ $10 30d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on May 16? BUY No 94¢ $10 30d
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 15? BUY Down 98¢ $5 30d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 13? BUY No 97¢ $6 33d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 12? BUY Yes 97¢ $6 33d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May BUY No 84¢ $10 33d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on May 13? BUY No 92¢ $10 33d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 13? BUY No 96¢ $5 33d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 12? BUY No 68¢ $5 33d
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $6 34d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on May 12? BUY No 93¢ $10 34d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 11? BUY Up 99¢ $5 34d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 71°F or below on May 12? BUY No 92¢ $5 34d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 12? BUY No 93¢ $5 34d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ma BUY No 85¢ $10 34d
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 30°C on May 11? BUY No 92¢ $8 35d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 11? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 35d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on May 11? BUY No 96¢ $5 35d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ma BUY No 90¢ $4 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.83 · official $16.60 (match) · 329 history records