Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:33:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3bd5…188f other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate24%11W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$131
other 35% +$29
crypto 17% −$80
world 2% +$20
finance 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-47.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -41.6% -47.2% 24% 22% -20.9%
≤30d 46 -41.6% -47.2% 24% 22% -20.9%
≤90d 46 -41.6% -47.2% 24% 22% -20.9%
all 46 -41.6% -47.2% 24% 22% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.2% 22% -20.9%
10% -52.2% 22% -28.5%
15% -56.8% 22% -35.4%
20% -61.1% 17% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$17 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses11 / 35
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage5d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$2 -11%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$2 -24%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$5 -53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $43 +$76 +179%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$2 -17%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$31 +60%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$12 +117%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$3 -27%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -88%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $61 +$29 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -26%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -53%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $69 −$15 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $71 +$43 +60%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $33 +$20 +61%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$57 +112%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$1 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $73 −$70 -96%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $70 −$69 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $72 −$2 -3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $80 −$79 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $95 +$59 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$17 -56%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $70 +$42 +59%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $97 +$46 +47%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $55 −$33 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 14¢ $18 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 4h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY No 0¢ $1 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 3¢ $5 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 98¢ $119 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 34¢ $20 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 33¢ $23 14h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $71 20h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 20h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 21h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $81 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 16¢ $22 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 31h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY No 4¢ $11 32h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 37h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY No 0¢ $21 37h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 39h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records