Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:42:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3B 0x3bd7…0140 finance 98 markets active 3d ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy finance specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23,064 (+12%) realized +$23,064 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%49W / 49L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$1,988per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 100% +$22,868
other 0% +$149
sports 0% −$14
crypto 0% +$12
economics 0% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 30 +8.7% -1.6% 43% 37% -11.9%
all 98 +6.9% -3.3% 50% 40% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 40% +1.2%
10% -12.5% 27% -8.5%
15% -21.0% 19% -17.4%
20% -28.7% 15% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$2,069) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$949 vs −$499 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23,064
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses49 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)98 / 98
History coverage145d
Avg bet$1,988
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 98 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 14, 9PM ET Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 15 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 14? Apr 15 $8,892 +$1,108 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 14 $1 +$1 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 14 $1 +$2 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Apr 14 $1 +$4 +371%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Apr 14 $3 +$19 +620%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 14 $9 +$1 +12%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 10? Apr 13 $7,019 −$4,661 -66%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 9? Apr 09 $41 −$12 -28%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 8? Apr 09 $3,858 +$135 +4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 7? Apr 07 $1,049 −$235 -22%
Atlético Nacional vs. Jaguares de Córdoba FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 07 $1 $0 +5%
Atlético Nacional vs. Jaguares de Córdoba FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 07 $1 $0 +35%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 2? Apr 07 $629 −$317 -50%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 6? Apr 06 $2,041 +$1,321 +65%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 1? Apr 01 $17,677 +$6,145 +35%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 31? Mar 31 $5,819 +$1,160 +20%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 30? Mar 31 $7,933 −$5,288 -67%
San Marino vs. Faroe Islands: O/U 4.5 Mar 30 $9 −$9 -100%
San Marino vs. Faroe Islands: O/U 2.5 Mar 28 $4 −$1 -39%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 27? Mar 27 $1,734 −$840 -48%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 26? Mar 26 $3,072 +$1,960 +64%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 25? Mar 25 $845 +$354 +42%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 24? Mar 25 $6,217 +$1,918 +31%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 23? Mar 23 $15,219 +$565 +4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 20? Mar 20 $2,967 +$382 +13%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 19? Mar 20 $8,469 +$1,072 +13%
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on March 19? Mar 19 $104 +$6 +6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 11? Mar 18 $523 −$523 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 18? Mar 18 $559 −$163 -29%
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on March 17? Mar 18 $41 +$12 +29%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 17? Mar 17 $13,366 +$2,696 +20%
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on March 17? Mar 17 $2 +$2 +118%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 17? Mar 17 $51 −$3 -6%
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on March 16? Mar 17 $311 +$129 +42%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 16? Mar 17 $18,000 +$7,841 +44%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 13? Mar 14 $2,306 −$806 -35%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 12? Mar 13 $3,877 +$530 +14%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 9? Mar 09 $2,069 −$419 -20%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 6? Mar 09 $720 −$653 -91%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 5? Mar 06 $376 −$376 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 71d
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 71d
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 14, 9PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 71d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 14? BUY Up 89¢ $2,682 71d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 14? BUY Up 89¢ $1,788 71d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 14? BUY Up 89¢ $1,788 71d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 14? BUY Up 89¢ $1,788 71d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 14? BUY Up 85¢ $6 71d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 14? BUY Up 84¢ $841 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 72d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 10? SELL Up 32¢ $121 75d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 10? SELL Up 30¢ $150 75d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 10? SELL Up 31¢ $25 75d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 10? SELL Up 31¢ $161 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 964 history records