Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:57:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3B 0x3bd7…fa0c sports 293 markets active 11h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,293 (-9%) realized −$4,293 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate52%153W / 140L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Fees−$270est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$99
7 days−$265
14 days−$509
30 days−$2,843
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$3,333
other 22% −$1,005
crypto 3% −$79
weather 2% −$342
politics 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +3.2% -6.6% 70% 45% -17.0%
≤30d 212 +1.5% -8.2% 55% 41% -17.2%
≤90d 293 -6.2% -15.1% 52% 40% -19.2%
all 293 -6.2% -15.1% 52% 40% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 40% -19.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 26% -26.9%
15% -30.7% 16% -34.0%
20% -37.5% 12% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$74 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,293
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses153 / 140
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$270
Open positions0
Markets (closed)293 / 293
History coverage37d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 293 Trades
no open positions (68 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -14%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $50 +$3 +5%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 17 $50 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $45 +$3 +6%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$5 -23%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $90 +$9 +10%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$28 +137%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $30 +$11 +35%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $55 +$3 +6%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $40 +$9 +23%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $35 +$10 +28%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $60 −$24 -40%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $402 −$400 -99%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $201 +$21 +10%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $203 +$161 +79%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $211 +$42 +20%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$78 -76%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$32 -32%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 11? Jun 12 $101 +$16 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $101 +$23 +23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -46%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -39%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -20%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $101 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +50%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $27 +$12 +44%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$5 +98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 11? Jun 11 $223 +$34 +15%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 Win Jun 11 $211 +$16 +8%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 11 $191 +$21 +11%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $180 +$8 +4%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $100 +$15 +15%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -70%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W Jun 10 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,370 −$229 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $411 −$232 -56%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $10 +$9 +84%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $501 +$53 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $100 −$90 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $1,023 −$28 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $201 −$10 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $10 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $10 10h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 17? SELL Yes 50¢ $9 10h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 17? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 10h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 11h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 99¢ $53 11h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $50 11h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL T1 94¢ $49 23h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 95¢ $50 32h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 32h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 92¢ $15 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 72¢ $16 33h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 95¢ $30 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 34h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 78¢ $101 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 99¢ $100 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 90¢ $90 3d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner SELL Vivo Keyd Stars 100¢ $5 4d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner SELL Vivo Keyd Stars 99¢ $43 4d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 41¢ $20 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 99¢ $59 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 93¢ $55 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Team WE 99¢ $49 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 80¢ $40 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $45 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 78¢ $25 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 77¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 825 history records