Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:22:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3B 0x3bd9…0e33 sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$31 (-4%) realized −$9 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate69%9W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$182
7 days−$38
14 days−$38
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$39
crypto 12% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +8.5% -1.8% 69% 69% -14.4%
≤30d 13 +8.5% -1.8% 69% 69% -14.4%
≤90d 13 +8.5% -1.8% 69% 69% -14.4%
all 13 +8.5% -1.8% 69% 69% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 69% -14.4%
10% -11.2% 62% -22.6%
15% -19.8% 54% -30.1%
20% -27.7% 46% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late +53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$72 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses9 / 4
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage245d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 64¢ 69¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+9%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 24¢ $50 $24 −$26 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$3 +5%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $50 +$17 +34%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$33 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$33 +64%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 +$31 +62%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$40 +79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 +$25 +50%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO1) Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Fnatic (BO1) Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $51 +$27 +54%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 +$42 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $51 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $51 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 78¢ $52 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $83 19h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $51 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $50 20h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 54¢ $51 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 20h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $51 38h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $51 47h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $51 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $51 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $78 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 64¢ $51 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $51 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Will Sc BUY 24¢ $0 4d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $50 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 14d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Fnatic (BO1) BUY Fnatic 8¢ $10 244d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Fnatic (BO1) BUY Fnatic 7¢ $10 244d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Fnatic (BO1) BUY Fnatic 8¢ $10 244d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Fnatic (BO1) BUY Fnatic 7¢ $10 244d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO1) BUY Hanwha Life Esports 77¢ $100 245d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.85 · official $77.85 (match) · 34 history records