Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:40:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3B 0x3bd9…e4ab sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$206 (+64%) realized +$298 · open −$92
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +134% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +112% what you keep after slip
Net edge+112%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+111.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +134.0% +111.7% 80% 80% +70.4%
≤30d 5 +134.0% +111.7% 80% 80% +70.4%
≤90d 5 +134.0% +111.7% 80% 80% +70.4%
all 5 +134.0% +111.7% 80% 80% +70.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +111.7% 80% +70.4%
10% +91.4% 80% +54.1%
15% +72.9% 80% +39.2%
20% +56.0% 60% +25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +88% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +134% · $-wt +88% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$5 · ×9.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×36.49 per $1 lost it wins $36.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$298
Unrealized−$92
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage4d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 4¢ $98 $6 −$92 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $50 +$54 +107%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $50 −$5 -11%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $20 +$94 +468%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $50 +$20 +41%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $50 +$32 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $50 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 55¢ $45 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $50 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $50 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 17¢ $20 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $50 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 86¢ $70 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $50 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 74¢ $82 4d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.58 · official $5.42 (match) · 12 history records