Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:18:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3B 0x3bda…917a sports 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% +$13
crypto 32% −$19
other 23% +$8
world 5% $0
culture 3% +$2
weather 1% −$1
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -2.4% -11.7% 36% 32% -14.8%
≤30d 25 -2.4% -11.7% 36% 32% -14.8%
≤90d 25 -2.4% -11.7% 36% 32% -14.8%
all 31 +10.0% -0.5% 45% 39% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 39% -8.3%
10% -10.0% 35% -17.1%
15% -18.7% 35% -25.1%
20% -26.7% 32% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +83% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage166d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +233%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -58%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +128%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -3°C on January 2? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 16 $8 −$3 -41%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Jun 16 $4 −$3 -74%
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -67%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +306%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 +$3 +140%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +212%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +141%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $4 +$4 +109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +107%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 15 $1 $0 -10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Jan 31 $1 +$2 +233%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026? Jan 19 $1 $0 +43%
Natural Disaster in 2026? Jan 19 $3 $0 +4%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 40m and Jan 13 $2 +$2 +82%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 1, 2026? Jan 02 $1 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 15m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 53m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $2 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $1 2h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $2 5h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 5h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $2 6h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 7h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 28¢ $1 7h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 7h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 9h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 9h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 23¢ $1 2d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 26¢ $1 2d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 31¢ $1 2d
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) BUY Scotland 15¢ $1 2d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Scotland 38¢ $5 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $9 2d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $2 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $2 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $21 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.02 · official $2.02 (match) · 77 history records