Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:19:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3B 0x3bda…b680 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 444d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate58%14W / 10L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% $0
other 32% +$2
politics 6% $0
sports 6% +$1
crypto 5% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +3.0% -6.8% 20% 20% -9.4%
≤30d 5 +3.0% -6.8% 20% 20% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +3.0% -6.8% 20% 20% -9.4%
all 24 +1.4% -8.2% 58% 8% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 8% -8.9%
10% -17.0% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.14 per $1 lost it wins $9.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

444d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses14 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage444d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $3 $0 +15%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $99 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $14 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $49 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 18 $3 $0 -9%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 May 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 10 $10 +$2 +15%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 08 $6 $0 +2%
Dillon Danis x Gorilla fight scheduled by next Friday? May 08 $15 $0 -1%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Apr 02 $15 $0 +1%
Feds raid Jay-Z before April? Mar 27 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $3 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $3 9h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $4 13h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $46 13h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $50 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $32 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $13 43h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $45 45h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $6 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $39 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $5 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $50 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $6 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $8 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $14 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 32¢ $14 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $49 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $49 4d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec SELL No 98¢ $16 354d
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? BUY No 99¢ $2 378d
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? SELL No 45¢ $2 396d
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? BUY No 45¢ $2 397d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec BUY No 98¢ $16 397d
Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 SELL No 99¢ $16 397d
Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 BUY No 99¢ $16 397d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? SELL No 98¢ $16 397d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? BUY No 98¢ $16 399d
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 98¢ $16 399d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.96 · official $9.96 (match) · 97 history records