Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:20:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
3B 0x3bdc…3a4e sports 432 markets active 2h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$112 (-0%) realized −$108 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%224W / 205L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$119est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$346now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106
7 days+$1,436
14 days+$1,387
30 days+$707
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$1,535
other 27% +$1,750
crypto 8% +$1,068
politics 2% −$1,481
tech 0% +$16
economics 0% +$4
finance 0% +$20
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +13.8% +2.9% 57% 57% +9.5%
≤30d 57 -3.2% -12.4% 53% 47% -3.8%
≤90d 73 -2.8% -12.1% 55% 49% -3.2%
all 429 +4.9% -5.1% 52% 45% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 45% -9.6%
10% -14.2% 42% -18.3%
15% -22.5% 38% -26.2%
20% -30.1% 33% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$162 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$346
Realized−$108
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses224 / 205
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$119
Open positions2
Markets (closed)429 / 432
History coverage592d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 429 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany leading at halftime? No 52¢ 52¢ $236 $234 −$2 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 44¢ 44¢ $114 $112 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 128 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $345 +$274 +79%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $423 +$271 +64%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $452 +$438 +97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $251 −$251 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $584 −$116 -20%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $198 −$195 -99%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $57 +$59 +105%
Fery vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 19 $148 −$145 -98%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $144 −$142 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $241 −$237 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $295 +$295 +100%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $145 −$145 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $215 −$212 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $202 +$268 +133%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $316 +$292 +92%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $394 +$362 +92%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $248 −$248 -100%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $224 +$218 +97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $243 −$240 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $105 −$103 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $109 +$70 +65%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $172 +$204 +119%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $60 +$73 +124%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $362 +$287 +79%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $268 +$127 +47%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $291 +$213 +73%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $205 −$202 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $157 +$219 +140%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $77 −$75 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $303 −$298 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $340 +$142 +42%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 12 $100 +$62 +62%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $460 +$201 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $275 +$145 +52%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $173 −$170 -98%
Zidansek vs. Hercog: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 06 $40 −$5 -12%
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $295 −$295 -100%
ITF Ljubljana: Matteo Fondriest vs Alexander Weis Jun 02 $63 +$7 +12%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $72 +$28 +40%
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Hendrik Thada Grohbruegge vs Lorenzo Bocchi Jun 02 $83 −$16 -20%
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 1.5 May 23 $112 −$112 -100%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 2.5 May 23 $128 −$128 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 23 $237 +$18 +8%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 23 $8 $0 +3%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 May 23 $8 $0 +3%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 2.5 May 23 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $139 −$139 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $116 +$84 +72%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 23 $235 −$235 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $115 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 52¢ $239 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $345 11h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 61¢ $423 12h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $251 13h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $452 13h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla SELL 1WIN 29¢ $9 20h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla SELL 1WIN 29¢ $20 20h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla SELL 1WIN 24¢ $1 20h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla SELL 1WIN 24¢ $1 20h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla SELL 1WIN 24¢ $1 20h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla SELL 1WIN 24¢ $1 20h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla SELL 1WIN 24¢ $6 20h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla SELL 1WIN 18¢ $18 21h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $198 21h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla SELL 1WIN 46¢ $9 21h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla SELL 1WIN 46¢ $37 21h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla SELL 1WIN 35¢ $35 21h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 1WIN 71¢ $46 22h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 1WIN 72¢ $58 22h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 1WIN 76¢ $297 23h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 1WIN 74¢ $22 23h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 1WIN 74¢ $96 23h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 1WIN 75¢ $60 23h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 1WIN 75¢ $4 23h
Fery vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 50¢ $148 28h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 48¢ $57 28h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 49¢ $144 28h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $241 37h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $132 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $346.04 · official $346.04 (match) · 2167 history records