Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3be1…05aa crypto 1024 markets active 0h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$489 (+2%) realized +$489 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%480W / 544L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$350
7 days−$350
14 days−$3,846
30 days−$1,577
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$340
sports 0% −$10
other 0% +$3
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -14.3% -22.5% 45% 45% -20.7%
≤30d 439 -13.6% -21.9% 47% 47% -21.1%
≤90d 980 -7.4% -16.2% 46% 45% -15.9%
all 1024 -2.9% -12.2% 47% 45% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 45% -10.7%
10% -20.6% 44% -19.3%
15% -28.2% 42% -27.1%
20% -35.3% 40% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$25 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$489
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses480 / 544
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1024 / 1024
History coverage131d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1024 Trades
no open positions (48 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $53 +$58 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $53 +$49 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $53 +$63 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$27 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $84 +$50 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $82 +$37 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $82 +$45 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $105 −$20 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $105 −$32 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $84 −$81 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $84 −$81 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $84 −$81 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $84 −$81 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $84 −$82 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $84 −$81 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $84 +$83 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $84 +$79 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $84 −$81 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $84 −$81 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $85 +$96 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $85 +$88 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $84 −$81 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $84 +$85 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $84 +$80 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$21 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $84 −$81 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $84 +$85 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$20 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $84 +$56 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $85 −$82 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $84 −$81 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $85 +$100 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $53 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $53 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $78 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $134 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $84 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $82 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $82 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $53 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $76 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $53 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $53 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $67 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $84 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $84 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $84 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $84 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $84 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $84 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $84 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $84 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $84 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $84 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $85 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2379 history records