Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:22:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3B 0x3be4…631a sports 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$93 (+1%) realized +$93 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate38%8W / 13L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$399per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% $0
weather 21% +$7
sports 20% +$97
other 19% −$2
world 0% $0
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 19 +1.5% -8.1% 42% 21% -8.4%
all 21 -8.1% -16.9% 38% 19% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 19% -8.5%
10% -24.8% 19% -17.3%
15% -32.1% 19% -25.3%
20% -38.7% 19% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$805) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$3 · ×5.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.55 per $1 lost it wins $3.55
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses8 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage104d
Avg bet$399
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $5 $0 -0%
Vejle BK vs. Randers FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 07 $11 +$11 +108%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 2.5 Apr 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Oilers Apr 06 $4 +$4 +108%
Once Caldas vs. Independiente Medellín: O/U 2.5 Apr 03 $11 +$12 +113%
Macarthur FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Real Valladolid CF vs. Cádiz CF: Both Teams to Score Apr 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Real Sporting de Gijón vs. RC Deportivo La Coruña: Both Teams to Score Mar 29 $91 +$91 +100%
Will Hibachi launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 27 $799 −$1 -0%
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elec Mar 27 $848 −$1 -0%
Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond? Mar 27 $805 −$1 -0%
Will Scottish Labour win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliamen Mar 27 $837 +$1 +0%
Will Ian Calderon advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Mar 27 $803 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on March 29? Mar 27 $1,743 +$7 +0%
Will Fulham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 202 Mar 27 $1,495 +$2 +0%
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 80% by March 31? Mar 27 $880 +$1 +0%
XRP Up or Down - March 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Mar 06 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 10AM ET Mar 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 1h
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $7 13d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $7 15d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $5 28d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $5 30d
Vejle BK vs. Randers FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $11 71d
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $6 72d
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $6 72d
Golden Knights vs. Oilers BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $4 73d
Once Caldas vs. Independiente Medellín: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $0 75d
Once Caldas vs. Independiente Medellín: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $11 75d
Macarthur FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $6 75d
Real Valladolid CF vs. Cádiz CF: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $6 76d
Real Sporting de Gijón vs. RC Deportivo La Coruña: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $91 79d
Will Hibachi launch a token by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $798 80d
Will Hibachi launch a token by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $799 80d
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elec SELL No 96¢ $839 80d
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elec SELL No 96¢ $8 80d
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elec BUY No 96¢ $848 80d
Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond? SELL No 99¢ $804 80d
Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond? BUY No 99¢ $805 80d
Will Scottish Labour win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliamen SELL No 99¢ $781 80d
Will Scottish Labour win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliamen SELL No 99¢ $57 80d
Will Scottish Labour win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliamen BUY No 99¢ $837 80d
Will Ian Calderon advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el SELL No 99¢ $800 80d
Will Ian Calderon advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el SELL No 99¢ $3 80d
Will Ian Calderon advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el BUY No 99¢ $803 80d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on March 29? SELL No 100¢ $869 80d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on March 29? BUY No 99¢ $864 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records