Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:51:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
3B 0x3be4…f329 crypto 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,437 (-6%) realized −$1,437 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate93%39W / 3L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$573per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$788now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$15
14 days+$54
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% +$79
other 24% −$1,226
economics 12% +$102
tech 8% −$49
finance 8% +$51
politics 2% −$405
sports 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.3% -7.5% 100% 0% -7.5%
≤30d 5 +5.3% -4.7% 100% 20% -5.9%
≤90d 12 +3.9% -6.0% 100% 17% -5.7%
all 42 -1.8% -11.1% 93% 7% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 7% -14.8%
10% -19.6% 0% -23.0%
15% -27.4% 0% -30.4%
20% -34.5% 0% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$877) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$612 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$788
Realized−$1,437
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses39 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage249d
Avg bet$573
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $548 $547 −$1 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $240 $240 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 23 $420 +$10 +2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 21 $116 +$3 +3%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 18 $115 +$2 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 15 $200 +$39 +20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 28 $534 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 24 $526 +$8 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 04 $474 +$53 +11%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 25 $877 +$61 +7%
Will NVIDIA dip to $116 in March? Apr 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA dip to $136 in March? Apr 06 $461 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of March? Mar 28 $273 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March? Mar 27 $191 +$1 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 12 $357 +$32 +9%
UC Riverside Highlanders vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Mar 06 $189 +$10 +5%
Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Mar 01 $377 +$33 +9%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 05 $500 −$123 -25%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Jan 28 $500 +$1 +0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 25 $564 −$405 -72%
Maduro out by February 28, 2026? Jan 22 $1,309 −$1,309 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 21 $560 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 31 $86 +$1 +1%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 30 $1,165 +$37 +3%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 30 $16 +$4 +22%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 22 $80 +$6 +8%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 18 $1,127 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 14 $1,081 +$46 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 13 $1,079 +$18 +2%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 01 $33 +$2 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November? Nov 20 $1,007 +$4 +0%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Nov 20 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on November 11? Nov 12 $439 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 11? Nov 12 $1,645 +$2 +0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Nov 11 $2,582 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 10? Nov 10 $181 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k November 3-9? Nov 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $122k November 3-9? Nov 07 $2,146 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 5? Nov 06 $63 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 6? Nov 05 $2,108 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on November 6? Nov 04 $494 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 October 27-November 2? Nov 04 $145 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Nov 02 $144 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on October 19? Oct 18 $144 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $59 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $198 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $291 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $430 23h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 99¢ $119 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $240 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $117 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $120 8d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 96¢ $116 23d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $119 24d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $420 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 97¢ $115 24d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? SELL No 100¢ $535 26d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY No 100¢ $534 29d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $306 31d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $228 31d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 98¢ $526 51d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $69 59d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $60 59d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $81 59d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $263 59d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 100¢ $474 60d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 98¢ $466 79d
Will NVIDIA dip to $136 in March? BUY No 100¢ $461 85d
Will NVIDIA dip to $116 in March? BUY No 100¢ $5 85d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $274 88d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $9 89d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $182 89d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $273 95d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $191 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $787.65 · official $787.65 (match) · 181 history records